Today the BBWAA Hall of Fame voting results were announced. For the first time since 1999, three players (Maddux, Glavine, and Thomas) received the necessary 75% of the vote needed for enshrinement. On November 27th, I posted my predictions. Here is a look at the actual results and how some of my predictions fared.
I correctly predicted the three players going in although I thought Biggio would squeak over the line and join them. He came painfully close missing election by just two votes. I also thought the overcrowded ballot would cause much more movement at the bottom than there actually was. Rafael Palmeiro was the only holdover candidate who failed to reach the 5% threshold needed to stay on the ballot for future consideration.
I missed badly on Mike Mussina and underestimated how much the stacked ballot would cause the holdover players to fall. Schilling, Trammell, Walker, Martinez, and Smith all saw their totals decrease by 10% or more. Smith dropped nearly 20%. Only two holdover candidates (Piazza & Biggio) actually saw their vote totals increase.
There was finally some movement with regards to known or suspected steroid users. Rafael Palmeiro fell off the ballot altogether. The ballot’s grim reaper will soon be coming for McGwire & Sosa as well. Bonds and Clemens remain in ballot purgatory with no chance of getting in anytime soon, or possibly ever.
The insufferable Jack Morris Hall of Fame debate is finally over (for now). Morris failed to gain entry on this his 15th and final year on the ballot. Morris becomes the 36th player to last the full 15 years on the ballot and not get in.
If I had an actual vote I would have voted for: Maddux, Bonds, Clemens, Thomas, Schilling, Mussina, Glavine, Piazza, Bagwell, and Raines. For me those are the ten best players on the ballot, listed in the order of which I think they are most deserving.
If more than ten slots were available I would also vote for eight more players (Trammell, Biggio, Walker, Martinez, McGwire, Sosa, Palmeiro, McGriff).
Looking ahead to 2015, several more quality candidates will join the ballot for the first time. They include Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz, Gary Sheffield, Nomar Garciaparra, and Carlos Delgado.
Early predictions for 2015. Johnson & Martinez are both shoo-ins. John Smoltz might join them but he is very tough to predict. I could see him getting anywhere from 50%-80% of the vote. Johnson & Martinez will be joined next year by Craig Biggio. Everyone else including Smoltz will likely fall short.
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