Episode 21: Russell Carleton

Russell-Carleton

On this episode of the Replacement Level Podcast Baseball Prospectus writer Russell Carleton joined me to discuss small sample sizes and when statistics start to stabilize. Russell also spoke about how much value good hitting & pitching coaches can provide to a team, the limitations of WAR(P), and the reliability of defensive metrics.

Russell also discussed his research on the Verducci Effect. Russell explained why Verducci’s theory isn’t accurate.

I hope you listen to and enjoy the interview. It can also be downloaded for free on iTunes.

Follow me on twitter @RossCarey

[podcast]http://www.replacementlevelpodcast.com/podcast/RLP_EP21_CARLTON.mp3[/podcast]

Diamond Mining the 2014 Hall of Fame Class

Diamond Mines logo

The Baseball Hall of Fame recently launched its Diamond Mines exhibit. The exhibit and its corresponding web database have scouting reports for over 4,000 players from more than 400 scouts. The scouting reports are fun to look and provide a great snapshot into the history of the game.

I thought I would take a look at what the scouts had to say about some of the notable newcomers on the 2014 Hall of Fame Ballot.

Greg Maddux - drafted in the 2nd round (31st overall) in the 1984 draft by the Chicago Cubs.

When Greg Maddux was still in A-ball with the Cubs, former major leaguer Duffy Dyer scouted him and wasn’t particularly impressed. He noted that Maddux had a “strong arm” but also “ran out of gas” and that he didn’t pitch well during the last 1/3 of the season. He also suggested that Maddux “was not strong enough to be a starter.”

In 1986 longtime White Sox scout Larry Monroe was more optimistic about Maddux saying “he’s gonna be a good one.” Monroe also praised Maddux’s control in his brief report.

in 1987 during Maddux’s rookie season Steve Vrablik noted that Maddux was “over his head and needed another season in AAA.” He also said that Maddux has a “strong arm with good stuff” and that he “liked his chances.”

By the following year, Vrablik graded Maddux as excellent, noting that he had “very good live sinking movement on his fastball, mixed with four good pitches.” He also said that Maddux “changes speeds well” and is a “good athlete.”

Maddux of course went on to become one of the greatest pitchers of all-time. He Finished his career with 355 wins, 3371 strikeouts, an ERA+ of 132, and a b-WAR of 104.6.

Mike Mussina – drafted in the 1st round (20th) of the 1990 draft by the Baltimore Orioles.

During Mussina’s sophomore year of high school in 1985 he was scouted by Phil Rossi. Mussina was both a shortstop and starting pitcher at the time. Rossi noted he had “potential at each”, and that “he could develop into a front line player.” Rossi also said he “didn’t see any real weaknesses in Mussina” and that “more game time experience was all he needed.” Rossi’s praise for Mussina continued saying ” he has excellent makeup and desire” and that he “really liked this player”.

The following year, Rossi scouted Mussina again. Rossi’s praise for Mussina continued giving him strong marks across the board. He compared him to the very underrated Dave Stieb. He also suggested that Mussina “only needs time and that the game will come easy to him.” Rossi noted that Mussina “will have college offers of his choice and will warrant a substantial bonus.” Rossi added “he’s well worth the investment.”

Billy Blitzer did not share Rossi’s overwhelming enthusiasm about Mussina. In 1987 he noted that Mussina’s “control suffers because he rushes his motion” and that “he must learn to vary speeds.” Blitzer was not impressed by Mussina’s now famous knuckle-curveball either; saying he “fools with knuckleball as a change, has no command of the pitch.”

Mussina finished his career with 270 wins, 2813 strikeouts, and a b-WAR of 82.7. His WAR of 82.7 currently ranks 24th all time, one spot ahead of Bob Gibson.

Tom Glavine – drafted in the 2nd round (47th overall) in the 1984 draft by the Atlanta Braves.

In 1985, Larry Monroe offered this report on Glavine. He projected that Glavine will “pitch in the big leagues” but added “whether he will really help a club depends on improvement of stuff & consistency overall.”

Five years later in 1990, Monroe scouted Glavine again. As strengths he noted Glavine’s fastball “hit 86 consistently with a good sink.” He also said Glavine “goes inside well to RHH [right handed hitters]“, and labeled him a “good fielder & athlete.” On Glavine’s weaknesses “No leg drive, just steps with right leg. He’s all arm.” He also said that Glavine “sometimes steers pitches and leaves stuff up.” He summarized Glavine saying “he will be real good when he gets leg drive and drives to the catcher like he did in 1989. He could win 15+ for us.”

Tom Glavine went on to win 305 games over his 22 year career. His b-WAR of 74.0 currently ranks 28th all time ahead of several Hall of Famers including Don Sutton, Jim Palmer, and Don Drysdale.

Frank Thomas – drafted in the 1st round (7th) in the 1989 draft by the Chicago White Sox.

Mike Rizzo the current GM of the Washington Nationals scouted Thomas in 1988 when he was a scout with the White Sox. Rizzo was impressed with Thomas’ power grading him  a 70 even when he was still in college at Auburn. He gave Thomas a future power grade of 80. Rizzo commented on Thomas’ size saying he has a “big and strong frame” and that his “chest and upper body were big and developed.” Rizzo also noted that Thomas’ arm and speed were both below average. Rizzo gave Thomas a grade of a B and noted that his “bat and power will take him as far as he goes” and that Thomas possessed “the top bat around, with the potential to be a very good or impact major leaguer.”

Allen Goldis also with the White Sox shared Rizzo’s enthusiasm for Thomas in this report from 1989. Goldis graded Thomas’ power at 80 and commented that he had “soft hands” and is “exciting to watch at every at-bat.” He also noted that ” our [The White Sox] conditioning program will make him a better player” and described him as a “NFL candidate who gave up football for baseball.” He also called Thomas “a tough competitor with good intelligence” and “very coachable.”

Larry Maxie a scouting supervisor with the White Sox in 1989 was not as optimistic on Thomas. He graded him a C level prospect despite his 80 power. He noted that Thomas had “one excellent tool” and was only “fair in the field.” He also labeled Thomas a “.250 hitter, tops.”

Frank Thomas finished his career with a slash line of .301/.419/.555 one of just 23 players (min 3,000 PA) in the .300/.400/.500 club. Thomas also hit 521 home runs and posted a career OPS+ of 156. Thomas’ b-WAR of 73.6 currently ranks 9th all time among first basemen ahead of several Hall of Famers including Eddie Murray, Willie McCovey, and Harmon Killebrew.

Jeff Kent – drafted in the 20th round (523rd overall) in the 1989 draft by the Toronto Blue Jays.

There isn’t much on Jeff Kent in the database. Scott Reid, a long time scout with the Cubs scouted him in 1990. Kent was 22 at the time and still playing in the Blue Jays organization. Kent is listed in the players with good reports in 1990 section of Reid’s report. Reid’s only note about Kent was that he had “solid tools across the board.”

Given where Kent was drafted and the little data available on him, I don’t think anyone saw him producing a Hall of Fame caliber career. Kent played for 17 seasons finishing with 377 home runs, a record for second basemen.

One amusing note from Reid’s report. He labeled George Bell as a “clutch RBI man.” I’m not sure such a thing exists but I’m pretty sure Reid has no interest in hearing that.

To find out more information about the Hall of Fame’s Diamond Mines exhibit visit the scouts section on the Hall’s website or check out the research provided by SABR.

Originally posted 5/15/13

Follow me on twitter @RossCarey


 

 

 

Episode 20: Wendy Thurm

Wendy-Thurm

On this episode of the Replacement Level Podcast Wendy Thurm joined me to discuss the business of baseball. We discussed the future of local TV contracts, what teams are set to benefit from the boom, and what teams will likely be shut out of the windfall. We also spoke about the state of free agency, the importance of variable and dynamic pricing, and why all sports might soon see a steady decline in attendance.

Wendy was a lawyer for over two decades. I asked her about MLB’s lawsuit against BioGenesis, what they’re hoping to accomplish, and more importantly if they will succeed with it. We also hit on how Barry Bonds is perceived in San Francisco and the Hall of Fame.

I hope you listen to and enjoy the interview. It can also be downloaded for free on iTunes.

Follow me on twitter @RossCarey

For a detailed look at Wendy’s work on local TV contracts you can read her FanGraphs piece here.

[podcast]http://www.replacementlevelpodcast.com/podcast/RLP_EP20_THURM.mp3[/podcast]

Is Miguel Cabrera The Best Right-Handed Hitter Of His Generation?

Miguel_Cabrera

Not everything or everyone is the best thing ever. We live in a time of instant gratification, short attention spans, and hyperbole overload. Recently, I’ve heard and read various pundits and players proclaim that Miguel Cabrera is the best right-handed hitter of his generation or possibly even the best of all time.

I wanted to take a closer look to see if that might actually be true.

I compiled a list of right-handed hitters with a career OPS+ of 145 or greater with at least 3,000 plate appearances through their age 30 season. I used 1989 as the cutoff year and the list produced ten players, Cabrera being one of them.

[gview file="http://www.replacementlevelpodcast.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Best-right-handed-hitters-through-age-30-v22.xlsx"]

Of the players on the chart above only A-Rod started his career at a younger age than Cabrera, and since Miguel is still playing his age 30 season he should pass Pujols in games played and plate appearances later this year.

Cabrera has posted an impressive career slash line of .319/.395/.561, however he ranks 5th, 5th, and 9th among the other great hitters on this list. Pujols ranks 1st, 2nd, 1st, respectively. Cabrera’s OPS of .956 ranks 7th and his OPS+ of 151 ranks 6th.

Cabrera does rank 3rd in homers (325), even though that total will grow this season, he is unlikely to surpass what either Rodriguez (464) or Pujols (408) did through age 30.

Cabrera vs Braun. This is an interesting comparison as both players are active and still playing through their age 30 seasons. Braun is actually only in his age 29 season, so he has 2013 & 2014 to add to his totals.

Braun’s slash line: .313/.374/.569

Cabrera’s slash line .319/.395/.561

Cabrera gets the slight edge but their numbers are very similar. What really puts Cabrera over Braun is the large gap between them in at-bats (2,204). Cabrera also tops him in OPS+ 151-148, but their numbers are closer than I expected.

Cabrera vs Manny

Manny’s slash line through age 30- .316/.411/.599

Cabrera’s slash line .319/.395/.561

Again those numbers are close but Manny gets the edge in OBP , SLG, OPS, and OPS+ (156-151). Manny did test positive for PEDs twice, and also reportedly failed the survey test in 2003. Manny’s PED connections  allow for some skepticism as to how legitimate all of his numbers are, but looking at the numbers alone, Manny was better.

Cabrera vs Thomas

Thomas’ slash line through age 30-.321/.443/.584

Cabrera’s slash line .319/.395/.561

Thomas leads all of the hitters in the chart above in OBP (.443), and OPS+ (174),  he also tops Cabrera in AVG, SLG, and OPS. Through age 30, Thomas was a better hitter than Cabrera.

Cabrera vs Pujols

Pujols’ slash line through age 30- .331/.426/.624

Cabrera’s slash line .319/.395/.561

Pujols sweeps Cabrera across the board including a 21 point difference in OPS+ (172-151). It’s perhaps Pujols who is the best right-handed hitter of his generation.

Cabrera vs Bagwell

Bagwell’s slash line through age 30- .304/.411/.538

Cabrera’s slash line .319/.395/.561

Cabrera has a higher OPS than Bagwell (.956-.949) but Bagwell has the better OPS+ (159-151). At best it’s a toss up for Cabrera.

Cabrera vs A-Rod

Rodriguez’s slash line through age 30- .305/.386/.573

Cabrera’s slash line .319/.395/.561

Rodriguez leads all of the players in the group in games played, plate appearances, at-bats, and homers. He also was playing shortstop at a very high level and was an above average baserunner as well. Rodriguez was a much better overall player than Cabrera, but Cabrera is the better hitter besting him in AVG, OBP, and OPS+ (151-145).

Cabrera vs Piazza

Piazza’s career slash line through age 30- .328/.391/.575

Cabrera’s slash line .319/.395/.561

Piazza of course put up these numbers while playing catcher, which is absurd. This is another coin flip but considering Piazza has Cabrera beat in AVG, SLG, OPS, and OPS+, I’d give him the slight edge. However I expect Cabrera to significantly outproduce what Piazza did after the age of 30.

Cabrera vs Vlad

Guerrero’s career slash line through age 30- .324/.391/.587

Cabrera’s slash line .319/.395/.561

Guerrero actually tops Cabrera in OPS (.977-.956), however Cabrera has the slightly higher OPS+ (151-150). I think as a baseball community we have forgotten how good Vlad was during the first decade of his career, he may not have been quite as good a hitter as Cabrera but it’s a lot closer than I expected.

Cabrera vs Belle

Belle’s career slash line through age 30- .292/.364/.566

Cabrera’s slash line .319/.395/.561

This is the only clear run away for Cabrera. Cabrera not only outproduced Belle through the age of 30, he should annihilate Belle’s accomplishments after the age of 30.

So what does all this mean? Miguel Cabrera is not the best right-handed hitter of all time or of his generation but that doesn’t mean he isn’t great. He is. He is without a doubt on a Hall of Fame pace. He has the chance to surpass the career accomplishments of nearly everyone on this rather impressive list as he is still performing at his peak and likely has several great seasons ahead of him.

However, looking the best right-handed hitters of his generation (through the age of 30) it’s nearly impossible to legitimately rank him ahead of Pujols or Thomas. A handful of others put up comparable numbers as well. That doesn’t diminish Cabrera’s accomplishments, he is among the best hitters of his generation, few can make that claim.

Not everyone or everything is the best thing ever. Miguel Cabrera doesn’t have to be the best hitter ever to still be awesome and fun to watch. Let’s just appreciate him for what he is.

Braun and Cabrera’s numbers are up to date as of 4/30/13

Originally posted 5/1/13

Follow me on twitter @RossCarey

Update: 5/15/13

After re-reading this piece, I really didn’t accomplish what I wanted to. When I started writing it I was just trying to take a look at the best right handed hitters of the last thirty years through the age of 30. I ended up comparing everyone to Cabrera for no reason and as Bryan noted in the comments section, I definitely stretched the definition of his generation while doing so.  I think the numbers are interesting but the tone of the piece wasn’t quite what I had in mind. Sorry Miguel!

 

 

Episode 19: Jay Jaffe

jay-jaffe

On this episode of the Replacement Level Podcast Sports Illustrated’s Jay Jaffe joined me to discuss his 20 ways to improve baseball right now piece. His ideas include expanding instant replay, using the DH in both leagues, and stopping the war on advanced metrics.

We offered some suggestions on how to revamp the Hall of Fame voting process and gave our very early predictions as to who will get enshrined in the 2014 class.

We also hit on Robinson Cano firing Scott Boras, and what that means for the Yankees and free agency in general. Jay also gave his thoughts on Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs unifying their baseline for wins above replacement.

I hope you listen to and enjoy the interview. It can also be downloaded for free on iTunes.

Follow me on twitter @RossCarey

[podcast]http://www.replacementlevelpodcast.com/podcast/RLP_EP19_JAFFE.mp3[/podcast]