Is Miguel Cabrera The Best Right-Handed Hitter Of His Generation?

Miguel_Cabrera

Not everything or everyone is the best thing ever. We live in a time of instant gratification, short attention spans, and hyperbole overload. Recently, I’ve heard and read various pundits and players proclaim that Miguel Cabrera is the best right-handed hitter of his generation or possibly even the best of all time.

I wanted to take a closer look to see if that might actually be true.

I compiled a list of right-handed hitters with a career OPS+ of 145 or greater with at least 3,000 plate appearances through their age 30 season. I used 1989 as the cutoff year and the list produced ten players, Cabrera being one of them.

[gview file="http://www.replacementlevelpodcast.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Best-right-handed-hitters-through-age-30-v22.xlsx"]

Of the players on the chart above only A-Rod started his career at a younger age than Cabrera, and since Miguel is still playing his age 30 season he should pass Pujols in games played and plate appearances later this year.

Cabrera has posted an impressive career slash line of .319/.395/.561, however he ranks 5th, 5th, and 9th among the other great hitters on this list. Pujols ranks 1st, 2nd, 1st, respectively. Cabrera’s OPS of .956 ranks 7th and his OPS+ of 151 ranks 6th.

Cabrera does rank 3rd in homers (325), even though that total will grow this season, he is unlikely to surpass what either Rodriguez (464) or Pujols (408) did through age 30.

Cabrera vs Braun. This is an interesting comparison as both players are active and still playing through their age 30 seasons. Braun is actually only in his age 29 season, so he has 2013 & 2014 to add to his totals.

Braun’s slash line: .313/.374/.569

Cabrera’s slash line .319/.395/.561

Cabrera gets the slight edge but their numbers are very similar. What really puts Cabrera over Braun is the large gap between them in at-bats (2,204). Cabrera also tops him in OPS+ 151-148, but their numbers are closer than I expected.

Cabrera vs Manny

Manny’s slash line through age 30- .316/.411/.599

Cabrera’s slash line .319/.395/.561

Again those numbers are close but Manny gets the edge in OBP , SLG, OPS, and OPS+ (156-151). Manny did test positive for PEDs twice, and also reportedly failed the survey test in 2003. Manny’s PED connections  allow for some skepticism as to how legitimate all of his numbers are, but looking at the numbers alone, Manny was better.

Cabrera vs Thomas

Thomas’ slash line through age 30-.321/.443/.584

Cabrera’s slash line .319/.395/.561

Thomas leads all of the hitters in the chart above in OBP (.443), and OPS+ (174),  he also tops Cabrera in AVG, SLG, and OPS. Through age 30, Thomas was a better hitter than Cabrera.

Cabrera vs Pujols

Pujols’ slash line through age 30- .331/.426/.624

Cabrera’s slash line .319/.395/.561

Pujols sweeps Cabrera across the board including a 21 point difference in OPS+ (172-151). It’s perhaps Pujols who is the best right-handed hitter of his generation.

Cabrera vs Bagwell

Bagwell’s slash line through age 30- .304/.411/.538

Cabrera’s slash line .319/.395/.561

Cabrera has a higher OPS than Bagwell (.956-.949) but Bagwell has the better OPS+ (159-151). At best it’s a toss up for Cabrera.

Cabrera vs A-Rod

Rodriguez’s slash line through age 30- .305/.386/.573

Cabrera’s slash line .319/.395/.561

Rodriguez leads all of the players in the group in games played, plate appearances, at-bats, and homers. He also was playing shortstop at a very high level and was an above average baserunner as well. Rodriguez was a much better overall player than Cabrera, but Cabrera is the better hitter besting him in AVG, OBP, and OPS+ (151-145).

Cabrera vs Piazza

Piazza’s career slash line through age 30- .328/.391/.575

Cabrera’s slash line .319/.395/.561

Piazza of course put up these numbers while playing catcher, which is absurd. This is another coin flip but considering Piazza has Cabrera beat in AVG, SLG, OPS, and OPS+, I’d give him the slight edge. However I expect Cabrera to significantly outproduce what Piazza did after the age of 30.

Cabrera vs Vlad

Guerrero’s career slash line through age 30- .324/.391/.587

Cabrera’s slash line .319/.395/.561

Guerrero actually tops Cabrera in OPS (.977-.956), however Cabrera has the slightly higher OPS+ (151-150). I think as a baseball community we have forgotten how good Vlad was during the first decade of his career, he may not have been quite as good a hitter as Cabrera but it’s a lot closer than I expected.

Cabrera vs Belle

Belle’s career slash line through age 30- .292/.364/.566

Cabrera’s slash line .319/.395/.561

This is the only clear run away for Cabrera. Cabrera not only outproduced Belle through the age of 30, he should annihilate Belle’s accomplishments after the age of 30.

So what does all this mean? Miguel Cabrera is not the best right-handed hitter of all time or of his generation but that doesn’t mean he isn’t great. He is. He is without a doubt on a Hall of Fame pace. He has the chance to surpass the career accomplishments of nearly everyone on this rather impressive list as he is still performing at his peak and likely has several great seasons ahead of him.

However, looking the best right-handed hitters of his generation (through the age of 30) it’s nearly impossible to legitimately rank him ahead of Pujols or Thomas. A handful of others put up comparable numbers as well. That doesn’t diminish Cabrera’s accomplishments, he is among the best hitters of his generation, few can make that claim.

Not everyone or everything is the best thing ever. Miguel Cabrera doesn’t have to be the best hitter ever to still be awesome and fun to watch. Let’s just appreciate him for what he is.

Braun and Cabrera’s numbers are up to date as of 4/30/13

Originally posted 5/1/13

Follow me on twitter @RossCarey

Update: 5/15/13

After re-reading this piece, I really didn’t accomplish what I wanted to. When I started writing it I was just trying to take a look at the best right handed hitters of the last thirty years through the age of 30. I ended up comparing everyone to Cabrera for no reason and as Bryan noted in the comments section, I definitely stretched the definition of his generation while doing so.  I think the numbers are interesting but the tone of the piece wasn’t quite what I had in mind. Sorry Miguel!

 

 

Baseball’s most exclusive clubs

Babe Ruth

Twenty eight players have accumulated 3,000 hits or more. Twenty five players have hit 500 home runs or more. Pete Rose tops the hit list with 4,256, Roberto Clemente finished with exactly 3,000. Barry Bonds is the all time home run leader with 762, Eddie Murray squeaked over the line finishing with 504.

I wanted to take a deeper look at the 3,000 hit and 500 home run clubs to see what group actually produced the better hitters and overall players.

Below is a look at the 3,000 hit club.

[gview file="http://www.replacementlevelpodcast.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/3000-hit-club1.pdf" save="1"]

Are those twenty eight hitters the best hitters of all time? Some of them are, but some of the best hitters to ever play fall short of the mark including; Barry Bonds (2,935), Babe Ruth (2,873), Lou Gehrig (2,721), and Ted Williams (2,654).

The twenty eight members of the 3,000 hit club produced an average career slash line of .311/.382/.468. That’s an OPS of .851 with an OPS+ of 134. Those numbers all exceed the overall Hall of Fame averages of .303/.376/.461 with an OPS of .837 and a OPS+ OF 128.

Including Deacon White, there are now 146 position players enshrined in the Hall of Fame because of their MLB playing careers. That group of 146 produced an average WAR (Baseball-Reference) of 63.1 The average WAR for the members of the 3,000 hit club is 91.3.

Not surprisingly the members of the 3,000 hit club were better hitters than your average Hall of Famer, the grotesque WAR difference suggests they were also better overall players.

But are they better than the 500 home run club?

[gview file="http://www.replacementlevelpodcast.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/500-HR-Club1.pdf" save="1"]

Clearly this list features many of the best hitters ever to play, but there are some notable omissions as well. Ty Cobb played before home runs were really a thing, he finished with “only” 117. Gehrig falls just short of list with 493 homers, as does Stan Musial who hit 475.

The twenty five members of the 500 home run club produced an average career slash line of .292/.394/.550. That’s an OPS of .943 with an OPS+ of 152. Those numbers not only exceed the Hall of Fame averages, they top the numbers produced by the 3,000 hit club as well. The 3,000 hit club got more hits (obviously) yielding a higher batting average (.311-.292), however the sluggers drew more walks producing a higher OBP (.394-.382). Slugging percentage is a runaway for the home run group (.550-.468), as in OPS+ (152-134). The average WAR of each group is almost identical (91.3/90.5). If you prefer looking at the median of the groups, the 3,000 hit club gets the edge in WAR (87.9/79.2).

Each group produced a similar quality of overall players, however the 500 home run club produced the better group of hitters. Is there another group that perhaps bests them both?

Twenty one players finished their career (min 5,000 PA) with a batting average of .300 or more, an on-base percentage of .400 or higher, and a slugging percentage of .500 or greater.

Here is a look at the .300/.400/.500 group, sorted by plate appearances.

[gview file="http://www.replacementlevelpodcast.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/300_400_500-Club1.pdf" save="1"]

Like the 3,000 hit and 500 home run clubs, this group includes many of the best hitters to ever play, and also has some notable omissions. Barry Bonds just missed (.298 AVG), as did Mickey Mantle (.298 AVG), and Jeff Bagwell (.297 AVG). Some of the other notable misses include Willie Mays (.384 OBP), Hank Aaron (.374 OBP), and Alex Rodriguez (.384 OBP). No hitter appears in all three groups.

The twenty one members of the .300/.400/.500 club produced an average career slash line of .330/.425/.563. That’s an OPS of .987 with an OPS+ of 161. Wow! The .300/.400/.500 group tops the 3,000 hit club in every rate stat including batting average (.330-.311). They top the 500 home run group in every rate state including slugging percentage (.563-.550). The .300/.400./500 club produced an average OPS+ of 161, only thirteen players in MLB history (min 5,000 PA) exceed that mark, nine are in this group.

Even though this group produced the better hitters or at least the better hitting numbers, the average WAR (91.8)  is almost identical two the other two clubs (91.3/90.5). If we use median the 3,000 hit group ranks first in WAR (87.9), followed by the .300/.400/.500 group at (81.5), and the home run group at 79.2

The players of the 3,000 hit group played longer than the other clubs and thus have more plate appearances and at-bats. The members of the slash line group on average had shorter careers resulting in fewer plate appearances, allowing their rate stats to stay higher.

In case you were wondering, it’s not like 5,000 plate appearances was some sort of magical cut off to prove a point. Drop the PA’s to a minimum of 3,000 and you only add another two players.

Lefty O’Doul played from 1919-1934 and finished his career with a slash line of .316/.415/.553 but did so in only 3,563 career plate appearances. O’Doul played in 100 games or more only six times in his career (28-33).

Joey Votto has a career slash line of .316/.415/.553 but has done so in only 3,064 plate appearances. Votto is still active, and still performing at his peak. Votto will not always be this good, but he does have enough of a cushion in all three categories that he will likely retire as the 22nd member of the actual group.

Alex Rodriguez will eventually become the 5th member to join both the 3,000 hit and 500 home run clubs. His hit total currently sits at 2,901. He should be a lock to eventually get to 3,000, but didn’t we used to say the same thing about him reaching Bonds’ career home run total?

Albert Pujols has a reasonable chance at becoming the first member of all three groups. His slash line of .325/.414/.608 gives him plenty of room to age and regress and still meet standards. Barring an injury or a career low home run total, he should join the 500 home run club late next season. Pujols currently has 2,246 hits. He is under contract for nine more years, he just needs to average 84 hits a season to reach the 3,000 hit plateau by the end of his contract. That seems very doable.

One other note, because the numbers used to the compile the averages are MLB stats only, it makes it impossible for me to include players who played exclusively in the Negro Leagues. Nothing has diluted stats and the integrity of the game like the exclusion of black players for over fifty years. While I can’t include them with these averages, I encourage you to visit the websites for the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum, and the National Baseball Hall of Fame to find out more about the many great players who were shamefully excluded from the game because of the color of their skin.

It’s also worth noting that sometimes FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference have slightly different numbers for the same player. For example, FanGraphs has Willie Mays with 12,493 plate appearances, Baseball-Reference has him at 12,496. These slight differences are common with historical players, the differences aren’t enough to skew the averages but it’s worth mentioning that the statistics represented in the charts above were compiled using data from Baseball-Reference.

Follow me on twitter @Rosscarey

Originally posted 12/17/12

 

 

 

 

Episode 8: Dan Szymborski

Dan Szymborski small

On this episode of the Replacement Level Podcast ESPN’s Dan Szymborski joined me to discuss his ZIPS projection system. Dan projected the career trajectory for dozens of players including Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Robinson Cano, Ryan Braun, and Bryce Harper.

We also discussed the AL MVP debate between Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera, how the sabermetric community can do a better job presenting its information, and how park factors can effect projections.

I hope you listen to and enjoy the podcast, it can also be downloaded for free on iTunes.

[podcast]http://www.replacementlevelpodcast.com/podcast/RLP_EP8_DanSzymborski.mp3[/podcast]

C-WAR Top 100 Position Players

Mickey Mantle-1953 By Bowman Gum [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

[caption id="attachment_1283" align="alignleft" width="555"] By Harris & Ewing (Library of Congress Harris & Ewing collection) [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons[/caption] C-WAR is a Hall of Fame monitoring system using career and peak WAR. C-WAR is the career WAR(P) totals from Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs, and Baseball Prospectus added up and averaged out, plus an eight year peak (five best years in a row, plus 3 best additional years) from Baseball-Reference. Click here for more information on C-WAR or here for an example of a full C-WAR chart.

Since I’m a nerd who enjoys lists, I wanted to post the top 100 position players by C-WAR.  Below is that list.

[gview file="http://www.replacementlevelpodcast.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/C-WAR-TOP-100-BATTERS-2.pdf" save="1"]

Are those the top 100 position players every to play baseball? No, but it’s a pretty good start. Just for fun, here is next 100.

[gview file="http://www.replacementlevelpodcast.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/C-WAR-top-100-batters-101-200-2.pdf" save="1"]

Since Baseball Prospectus does not publish WAR data for players before 1950, this does create a bit of unfair advantage for those players. This is because of the three sites, Baseball Prospectus tends to have the lowest WAR values for a player (especially with pitchers), so it puts modern players (1950-present) at an unfair disadvantage. So to adjust for this, below is the top 100 excluding Baseball Prospectus’ WAR altogether.

[gview file="http://www.replacementlevelpodcast.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/C-WAR-TOP-100-BATTERS-NO-BP.pdf" save="1"]

And the next 100 as well.

[gview file="http://www.replacementlevelpodcast.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/C-WAR-top-100-batters-101-200-NO-BP.pdf" save="1"]

I prefer this list to the one that includes BP’s WAR. Once BP publishes WAR data for every player, using all three will make more sense.

Baseball- Reference tends to represent the middle ground of value between all three sites. FanGraphs usually produces the highest WAR, followed by Baseball-Reference, and Baseball Prospectus. This is because each site has a different starting point for what a replacement level player is. FanGraphs has a lower starting point, thus produces higher WAR estimates. For example, Only four Hall of Fame position players have a greater rWAR (Baseball-Reference) than fWAR (FanGraphs). Those players are Cap Anson (91.1-86.9), Ozzie Smith (73.0-70.1), Ryne Sandberg (64.9-62.6), and Sam Thompson (42.1-40.6).

Since I calculated peak using only rWAR, below is the top 100 using just Baseball Reference’s WAR. Another words this is a player’s career WAR plus his eight year peak using on Baseball-Reference. FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus are not factored in to the chart below at all.

[gview file="http://www.replacementlevelpodcast.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/C-WAR-TOP-100-BATTERS-BR-ONLY.pdf" save="1"]

And the next 100:

[gview file="http://www.replacementlevelpodcast.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/C-WAR-top-100-batters-101-200-BR-ONLY.pdf" save="1"]

I like this list as well, having one constant is nice and rWAR is the most stable of the three but this list does depend solely on the estimates from one source. There are pros and cons to this, but this list works just fine, especially if you only use Baseball-Reference’s WAR. I prefer the 2nd list that also includes FanGraphs but think all three are valuable to look at.

One other note, because C-WAR focuses only on WAR, it makes it impossible for me to include players who played exclusively in the Negro Leagues with any of these calculations. Nothing has diluted stats and the integrity of the game like the exclusion of black players for over fifty years. While I can’t include them in C-WAR, I encourage you to visit the websites for the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum, and the National Baseball Hall of Fame to find out more about the players who likely would have cracked the top 100 had they simply been allowed to have played in the majors.

Many thanks to the incredibly smart people who work at Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs, and Baseball Prospectus. Without their tireless efforts to improve and maintain their sites and information none of this research would be possible.

Any questions or comments about the Hall, or a player listed or not listed above, send them to contact@replacementlevelpodcast.com or find me on Twitter @Rosscarey

Originally posted 10/24/12

 

 

C-WAR Top 100

Stan Musial-1953 By Bowman Gum [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

[caption id="" align="alignright" width="302"] Bob Gibson-Baseball Digest-1962
[Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons[/caption]C-WAR is a Hall of Fame monitoring system using career and peak WAR. C-WAR is the career WAR(P) totals from Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs, and Baseball Prospectus added up and averaged out, plus an eight year peak (five best years in a row, plus 3 best additional years) from Baseball-Reference. Click here for more information on C-WAR or here for an example of a full C-WAR chart.

Since I’m a nerd who enjoys lists, I wanted to post the top 100 players by C-WAR.  Below is that list.

[gview file="http://www.replacementlevelpodcast.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/C-WAR-TOP-100-2.pdf" save="1"]

Are those the top 100 players every to play baseball? No, but it’s a pretty good start. Here are the players that just missed this list:

101 Ozzie Smith 114.0
102 Jackie Robinson 114.0
103 “Shoeless” Jackson 114.0
104 Lou Boudreau 113.8
105 Tim Raines 113.7
106 Barry Larkin 113.7

 

Since Baseball Prospectus does not publish WAR data for players before 1950, this does create a bit of unfair advantage for those players. This is because of the three sites, Baseball Prospectus tends to have the lowest WAR values for a player (especially with pitchers), so it puts modern players (1950-present) at an unfair disadvantage. So to adjust for this, below is the top 100 excluding Baseball Prospectus’ WAR altogether.

[gview file="http://www.replacementlevelpodcast.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/C-WAR-Top-100-no-BP.pdf" save="1"]

Joe Cronin, Dazzy Vance, Sam Crawford, Bill Dahlen, and Willie McCovey fell off of this list entirely. Of that group only McCovey started his career after 1950. This version of the top 100 added Larry Walker, Ozzie Smith, Kevin Brown, Bobby Grich, and Roy Halladay, all of whom started their careers after 1950. Because BP values pitchers significantly lower than Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs, modern pitchers made the biggest jumps between the two lists. Nolan Ryan went from 72nd to 53rd, Fergie Jenkins went from 73rd to 54th, and Mike Mussina jumped from 82nd to 70th place.

Here are the players that just missed this list:

101 Andruw Jones 115.2
102 Alan Trammell 115.0
103 Juan Marichal 114.6
104 Rick Reuschel 114.5
105 Willie McCovey 114.5
106 Barry Larkin 114.5

 

I prefer this list to the one that includes BP’s WAR. Once BP publishes WAR data for every player, using all three will make more sense.

Baseball- Reference tends to represent the middle ground of value between all three sites. FanGraphs usually produces the highest WAR, followed by Baseball-Reference, and Baseball Prospectus. This is because each site has a different starting point for what a replacement level player is. FanGraphs has a lower starting point, thus produces higher WAR estimates. For example, Only four Hall of Fame position players have a greater rWAR (Baseball-Reference) than fWAR (FanGraphs). Those players are Cap Anson (91.1-86.9), Ozzie Smith (73.0-70.1), Ryne Sandberg (64.9-62.6), and Sam Thompson (42.1-40.6).

Since I calculated peak using only rWAR, below is the top 100 using just Baseball Reference’s WAR. Another words this is a player’s career WAR plus his eight year peak using on Baseball-Reference. FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus are not factored in to the chart below at all.

[gview file="http://www.replacementlevelpodcast.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/C-WAR-Top-100-baseball-reference-only.pdf" save="1"]

This list also includes Walker, Halladay, Grich and Smith. Not only does this list include Smith, he jumped up to 78th place. That big jump is directly attributed to how each site values and calculates defense.  This list also added Alan Trammell, Ryne Sandberg, Mickey Welch, Stan Covelski, and Al Spalding.

I like this list as well, having one constant is nice and rWAR is the most stable of the three but this list does depend solely on the estimates from one source. There are pros and cons to this, but this list works just fine, especially if you only use Baseball-Reference’s WAR. I prefer the 2nd list that also includes FanGraphs but think all three are valuable to look at.

Here are the players that just missed this list:

101 Carl Hubbell 113.1
102 Barry Larkin 112.8
103 Vic Willis 112.7
104 Kevin Brown 112.7
105 Dazzy Vance 112.6
106 Scott Rolen 112.3

 

So who’s missing? Jackie Robinson, Sandy Koufax, Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome, Juan Marichal, and Eddie Murray are among the notables not to make any of the lists. It would be impossible to make a list of the top 100 baseball players ever without including Robinson and Koufax, they both fall short of the C-WAR top 100 because of how brief their careers were. Robinson didn’t make his Major League debut until he was 28, Koufax threw his last pitch when he was only 30 years old. They didn’t accumulate enough career value, but their peaks are both top 100 (that’s another list). The other guys lose points because of their defensive shortcomings, and Marichal misses because WAR (along with traditional narrative) tends to overvalue pitchers from the late 1800′s and early 1900′s. Even with some of the notable omissions, these lists work. What do you think? What players surprised you the most?

One other note, because C-WAR focuses only on WAR, it makes it impossible for me to include players who played exclusively in the Negro Leagues with any of these calculations. Nothing has diluted stats and the integrity of the game like the exclusion of black players for over fifty years. While I can’t include them in C-WAR, I encourage you to visit the websites for the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum, and the National Baseball Hall of Fame to find out more about the players who likely would have cracked the top 100 had they simply been allowed to play in the majors.

Many thanks to the incredibly smart people who work at Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs, and Baseball Prospectus. Without their tireless efforts to improve and maintain their sites and information none of this research would be possible.

Any questions or comments about the Hall, or a player listed or not listed above, send them to contact@replacementlevelpodcast.com or find me on Twitter @Rosscarey

Originally posted 10/19/12