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C-WAR Top 100

October 19, 2012 By 3 Comments
Stan Musial-1953 By Bowman Gum [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

[caption id="" align="alignright" width="302"] Bob Gibson-Baseball Digest-1962
[Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons[/caption]C-WAR is a Hall of Fame monitoring system using career and peak WAR. C-WAR is the career WAR(P) totals from Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs, and Baseball Prospectus added up and averaged out, plus an eight year peak (five best years in a row, plus 3 best additional years) from Baseball-Reference. Click here for more information on C-WAR or here for an example of a full C-WAR chart.

Since I’m a nerd who enjoys lists, I wanted to post the top 100 players by C-WAR.  Below is that list.

[gview file="http://www.replacementlevelpodcast.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/C-WAR-TOP-100-2.pdf" save="1"]

Are those the top 100 players every to play baseball? No, but it’s a pretty good start. Here are the players that just missed this list:

101 Ozzie Smith 114.0
102 Jackie Robinson 114.0
103 “Shoeless” Jackson 114.0
104 Lou Boudreau 113.8
105 Tim Raines 113.7
106 Barry Larkin 113.7

 

Since Baseball Prospectus does not publish WAR data for players before 1950, this does create a bit of unfair advantage for those players. This is because of the three sites, Baseball Prospectus tends to have the lowest WAR values for a player (especially with pitchers), so it puts modern players (1950-present) at an unfair disadvantage. So to adjust for this, below is the top 100 excluding Baseball Prospectus’ WAR altogether.

[gview file="http://www.replacementlevelpodcast.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/C-WAR-Top-100-no-BP.pdf" save="1"]

Joe Cronin, Dazzy Vance, Sam Crawford, Bill Dahlen, and Willie McCovey fell off of this list entirely. Of that group only McCovey started his career after 1950. This version of the top 100 added Larry Walker, Ozzie Smith, Kevin Brown, Bobby Grich, and Roy Halladay, all of whom started their careers after 1950. Because BP values pitchers significantly lower than Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs, modern pitchers made the biggest jumps between the two lists. Nolan Ryan went from 72nd to 53rd, Fergie Jenkins went from 73rd to 54th, and Mike Mussina jumped from 82nd to 70th place.

Here are the players that just missed this list:

101 Andruw Jones 115.2
102 Alan Trammell 115.0
103 Juan Marichal 114.6
104 Rick Reuschel 114.5
105 Willie McCovey 114.5
106 Barry Larkin 114.5

 

I prefer this list to the one that includes BP’s WAR. Once BP publishes WAR data for every player, using all three will make more sense.

Baseball- Reference tends to represent the middle ground of value between all three sites. FanGraphs usually produces the highest WAR, followed by Baseball-Reference, and Baseball Prospectus. This is because each site has a different starting point for what a replacement level player is. FanGraphs has a lower starting point, thus produces higher WAR estimates. For example, Only four Hall of Fame position players have a greater rWAR (Baseball-Reference) than fWAR (FanGraphs). Those players are Cap Anson (91.1-86.9), Ozzie Smith (73.0-70.1), Ryne Sandberg (64.9-62.6), and Sam Thompson (42.1-40.6).

Since I calculated peak using only rWAR, below is the top 100 using just Baseball Reference’s WAR. Another words this is a player’s career WAR plus his eight year peak using on Baseball-Reference. FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus are not factored in to the chart below at all.

[gview file="http://www.replacementlevelpodcast.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/C-WAR-Top-100-baseball-reference-only.pdf" save="1"]

This list also includes Walker, Halladay, Grich and Smith. Not only does this list include Smith, he jumped up to 78th place. That big jump is directly attributed to how each site values and calculates defense.  This list also added Alan Trammell, Ryne Sandberg, Mickey Welch, Stan Covelski, and Al Spalding.

I like this list as well, having one constant is nice and rWAR is the most stable of the three but this list does depend solely on the estimates from one source. There are pros and cons to this, but this list works just fine, especially if you only use Baseball-Reference’s WAR. I prefer the 2nd list that also includes FanGraphs but think all three are valuable to look at.

Here are the players that just missed this list:

101 Carl Hubbell 113.1
102 Barry Larkin 112.8
103 Vic Willis 112.7
104 Kevin Brown 112.7
105 Dazzy Vance 112.6
106 Scott Rolen 112.3

 

So who’s missing? Jackie Robinson, Sandy Koufax, Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome, Juan Marichal, and Eddie Murray are among the notables not to make any of the lists. It would be impossible to make a list of the top 100 baseball players ever without including Robinson and Koufax, they both fall short of the C-WAR top 100 because of how brief their careers were. Robinson didn’t make his Major League debut until he was 28, Koufax threw his last pitch when he was only 30 years old. They didn’t accumulate enough career value, but their peaks are both top 100 (that’s another list). The other guys lose points because of their defensive shortcomings, and Marichal misses because WAR (along with traditional narrative) tends to overvalue pitchers from the late 1800′s and early 1900′s. Even with some of the notable omissions, these lists work. What do you think? What players surprised you the most?

One other note, because C-WAR focuses only on WAR, it makes it impossible for me to include players who played exclusively in the Negro Leagues with any of these calculations. Nothing has diluted stats and the integrity of the game like the exclusion of black players for over fifty years. While I can’t include them in C-WAR, I encourage you to visit the websites for the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum, and the National Baseball Hall of Fame to find out more about the players who likely would have cracked the top 100 had they simply been allowed to play in the majors.

Many thanks to the incredibly smart people who work at Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs, and Baseball Prospectus. Without their tireless efforts to improve and maintain their sites and information none of this research would be possible.

Any questions or comments about the Hall, or a player listed or not listed above, send them to contact@replacementlevelpodcast.com or find me on Twitter @Rosscarey

Originally posted 10/19/12

Filed Under: Blog, C-WAR Hall of Fame Monitor, Hall of Fame, Top 100 Lists Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

C-WAR Hall of Fame Project: Designated Hitter

August 16, 2012 By Leave a Comment
Edgar Martinez courtesy of blogs.seattleweekly.com via Wikipedia

 

[caption id="attachment_1304" align="alignleft" width="275"] Edgar Martinez
via blogs.seattleweekly.com via Wikipedia[/caption]

C-WAR is a Hall of Fame monitoring system using career and peak WAR. C-WAR is the career WAR(P) totals from Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs, and Baseball Prospectus added up and averaged out, plus an eight year peak (five best years in a row, plus 3 best additional years) from Baseball-Reference. Click here for more information on C-WAR.

Hall of Fame standards vary by position, but a C-WAR score of 100 is usually the minimum of being Hall worthy. Ideally a player’s peak is 40+ (averaging 5 or more wins a year during their eight year peak) and his career average is 60+. Established in 1973, the DH is a relatively new position. No player who has played at least 50% of their games at DH is currently enshrined in the Hall of Fame. This should change in 2014 when Frank Thomas first appears on the ballot.

How to read the chart below:

The player’s name is followed by their career WAR from Baseball-Reference (BR), FanGraphs (FG), and Baseball Prospectus (BP). Those three numbers (or two, BP doesn’t publish historical WAR data prior to 1950) are averaged out (AVG). The AVG is the first half of C-WAR. Next you will find the player’s five best years in a row (BR-5), followed by the player’s three best additional seasons (BR-3), both according to Baseball- Reference’s WAR. Next to that is the total peak value (PK) of the five best years, and three best additional years added together. PK is the second half of C-WAR. Adding AVG+PK=C-WAR. The seasons next to PK are the five best years in a row (5 YEARS), followed by the three best additional years (3 YEARS +). The last number is C-WAR. Players highlighted in gold are members of the Hall of Fame. Players in blue are still active. You can zoom in and out of the chart with the magnifying glass symbols on the right, and download the entire PDF.

Please note that Baseball Prospectus’ WARP system is very unstable and produces frequent changes to a player’s value. The numbers below are up to date as of 11/24/12

Below is the chart for designated hitters:

[gview file="http://www.replacementlevelpodcast.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/C-WAR-DH-21.pdf" save="1"]

Some notes on the chart:

1. Frank Thomas 73.3 AVG/48.7 PK/122 C-WAR

Frank Thomas averaged 6.1 wins a year during his peak, only two of those peak years (91, 00) were played primarily at DH. Thomas played more games as a DH (1,310) than at first base (969) and will likely be the first player enshrined into the Hall of Fame who played over 50% of his games as a designated hitter. Thomas finished his career with a slash line of .301/.419/.555 and an OPS of .974. Thomas hit 521 home runs, and is one of only nine members of the 500 home run club to also have a career on-base percentage over .400. Thomas was an outspoken critic of the “steroid era” and the only active player who cooperated with the Mitchell Report, he need not worry about the BBWAA moral police keeping him out of the Hall.

2. Paul Molitor 75.7 AVG/41.9 PK/117.6 C-WAR

Paul Molitor averaged 5.2 wins a year during his peak, three of those peak years (87, 91, 93) were played primarily at DH. Molitor played more games at DH than anywhere else, but more games in the field combined than at DH. Molitor finished his career with 3,319 hits and a slash line of .306/.369/.448 with an OPS of .817. Molitor was elected to the Hall of Fame his first year on the ballot with 85.2% of the vote.

3. Jim Thome 69.2 AVG/43.3 PK/112.5 C-WAR (and counting)

Jim Thome averaged 5.4 wins a year during his peak, none of his peak years were played primarily at DH. Thome has played lots of games as a designated hitter (817 and counting),  however most of them came later in his career. Thome is one of just eight players with 600 or more home runs, and one of three with 600+ homers and an on-base percentage of .400 or higher. Ruth and Bonds are the other two. Thome should be an obvious Hall of Famer, however I suspect when he first appears on the ballot he will be given the Bagwell treatment as well. Thome has never tested positive, never was the subject of a federal investigation, he wasn’t named in the Mitchell Report, no eyewitnesses have ever claimed to have seen him use or provided him with PEDs, and he has repeatedly denied ever using steroids.

4. Edgar Martinez 67.5 AVG/46.3 PK/113.8 C-WAR

Edgar Martinez averaged 5.8 wins a year during his eight year peak, all but two of his peak years (91, 92) were played almost exclusively at DH. Martinez was baseball’s first great full time designated hitter, over the duration of his career he played 68% percent of his games there. Martinez finished with a slash line of .312/.418/.515 with an OPS of .933. From 1990-1999 Martinez posted a WAR (Baseball-Reference) of 49.2, 7th best in the majors during that time, his FanGraphs WAR (fWAR) of 54 ranks 5th. Martinez is being excluded from the Hall of Fame because the old voting guard hates the DH. They also loathe the wild card, realignment, interleague play, advanced metrics, and any change related to the game of baseball. Even though the DH is 40 years old, they’re still bitter about its existence. That’s the primary reason Edgar Martinez isn’t already in the Hall of Fame, buffoonery. I suspect some voters are also giving Martinez the Bagwell treatment as well, so he has two unfair things keeping him out of the Hall, what a shame.

Those four are all deserving of enshrinement into the Hall of Fame, everyone else on the chart above falls short. David Ortiz had a great five year stretch from 2003-2007 averaging 4.8 wins a year during that time. Ortiz dipped after that, but has since regained some of that peak form during his last two seasons. His traditional numbers are getting close to making him a borderline Hall of Fame candidate, however his positive steroid test during the 2003 survey period will squash any chance he has of getting enshrined.

Many thanks to the incredibly smart people who work at Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs, and Baseball Prospectus. Without their tireless efforts to improve and maintain their sites and information none of this research would be possible.

Any questions or comments about the Hall, or a player listed or not listed above, send them to contact@replacementlevelpodcast.com or find me on Twitter @Rosscarey

Originally posted 8/16/12

Updated 11/24/12

Filed Under: Blog, C-WAR Hall of Fame Monitor, Hall of Fame Tagged With: , , , , , , , ,

C-WAR Hall of Fame Project: Right Field

August 10, 2012 By 2 Comments
Frank Robinson-1961-via Baseball Digest via Wikimedia Commons

[caption id="" align="alignleft" width="211"] Hank Aaron-Baseball Digest-1960
[Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons[/caption] C-WAR is a Hall of Fame monitoring system using career and peak WAR. C-WAR is the career WAR(P) totals from Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs, and Baseball Prospectus added up and averaged out, plus an eight year peak (five best years in a row, plus 3 best additional years) from Baseball-Reference. Click here for more information on C-WAR.

Hall of Fame standards vary by position, but a C-WAR score of 100 is usually the minimum of being Hall worthy. Ideally a player’s peak is 40+ (averaging 5 or more wins a year during their eight year peak) and his career average is 60+. The average C-WAR line for a Hall of Fame right-fielder is: 71.3 career average/43.9 peak/115.2 C-WAR. It’s important to note that the average(s) for anything are greatly skewed by the top and bottom numbers. Only ten right fielders enshrined in the Hall actually meet those standards. So many all-time great players played right field, Ruth, Aaron, Robinson, Ott, and Kaline all greatly shift the averages up. Obvious Hall of Famers like Tony Gwynn, and Dave Winfield fall short of those standards, that doesn’t mean they are not deserving, they are, as are several others. 24 right fielders are currently enshrined in the Hall of Fame.

How to read the chart below:

The player’s name is followed by their career WAR from Baseball-Reference (BR), FanGraphs (FG), and Baseball Prospectus (BP). Those three numbers (or two, BP doesn’t publish historical WAR data prior to 1950) are averaged out (AVG). The AVG is the first half of C-WAR. Next you will find the player’s five best years in a row (BR-5), followed by the player’s three best additional seasons (BR-3), both according to Baseball- Reference’s WAR. Next to that is the total peak value (PK) of the five best years, and three best additional years added together. PK is the second half of C-WAR. Adding AVG+PK=C-WAR. The seasons next to PK are the five best years in a row (5 YEARS), followed by the three best additional years (3 YEARS +). The last number is C-WAR. Players highlighted in gold are members of the Hall of Fame. Players in blue are still active. You can zoom in and out of the chart with the magnifying glass symbols on the right, and download the entire PDF.

Please note that Baseball Prospectus’ WARP system is very unstable and produces frequent changes to a player’s value. The numbers below are up to date as of 11/24/12

Below is the chart for right fielders:

[gview file="http://www.replacementlevelpodcast.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/C-WAR-RF-2.pdf" save="1"]

Some notes on the chart:

1. Babe Ruth 168.5 AVG/88.5 PK/257 C-WAR

Babe Ruth has the highest C-WAR rating at 257, and the highest peak (88.5) averaging an incredible 11.1 wins a year during that stretch. Ruth is the career WAR leader on both Baseball-Reference (159.2) and FanGraphs (177.9). He ranks 1st all-time in slugging percentage (.690), wOBA (.513), wRC+ (197), OPS (1.163), and OPS+ (206). Using Baseball-Reference’s WAR, Ruth has four of the top ten individual seasons ever posted by a non-pitcher, including the top two. There are many, many, more career and single season records Ruth holds, he has more black ink on his resume than anyone else. There is no disputing Ruth’s complete dominance but it’s important to note he played his entire career when the game was segregated and still developing. Ruth should be considered an all-time great and deserves to be in the conversation as the best to ever play, however considering the inferior level of competition he played against taking all of his numbers at face value is a mistake.

2. Hank Aaron 144.5 AVG/65.1 PK/209.6 C-WAR

Hank Aaron averaged 8.1 wins a year during his peak, and is one of only ten players with a C-WAR rating over 200. Aaron is the career leader in both RBI (2,297), and total bases (6,856). Aaron led the National League in home runs four times, hits twice, runs three times, RBI four times, batting average twice, slugging percentage four times, and OPS three times. From 1955-1973 Aaron posted an OPS+ of 140 or greater every year, not even Ruth put together a stretch like that. Aaron is on the short list of players with a legitimate claim to be the best to ever play.

3. Mel Ott 110.1 AVG/57.2 PK/167.3 C-WAR

Mel Ott averaged 7.2 wins a year during his eight year peak. Ott led the National League in home runs six times, and on-base percentage four times. Among right fielders with 5,000 plate appearances or more, Ott ranks in the top five in OPS+ (155), wOBA (.430) and wRC+(156). Ott made his major league debut at the age of 17, tying him with Jimmie Foxx as the youngest debut age for any player enshrined in the Hall of Fame.

4. Frank Robinson 111.5 AVG/54.5 PK/166 C-WAR

Frank Robinson averaged 6.8 wins a year during his eight year peak. Robinson won the triple crown in 1966 posting a WAR (Baseball-Reference) of 7.3 while doing so. Among right fielders with 5,000 plate appearances or more Robinson ranks top five in runs (1,829), RBI (1,812), walks (1,420), home runs (586), OPS+ (154), and wRC+ (153).

5. Al Kaline 95.6 AVG/52.3 PK/147.9 C-WAR

Al Kaline averaged 6.5 wins a year during his peak, and is a member of the 3,000 hit club. Kaline was also an elite defensive player, saving 156 runs over his career, third all-time among right fielders. Kaline made his major league debut at the age of 18.

6. Roberto Clemente 88.9 AVG/58.9 PK/147.8 C-WAR

Clemente averaged 7.4 wins a year during his eight year peak, third best among right fielders trailing only Ruth and Aaron. Clemente led the National League in batting average four times, and is a member of the 3,000 hit club. From 1960-1969 Clemente’s WAR (Baseball-Reference) of 64.1 ranked third in baseball trailing only Willie Mays (81.7), and Hank Aaron (78.5). Clemente was an elite defensive player, he ranks 1st among right fielders in runs saved (204), and is one of only five players to have saved 200 runs or more over their careers.

7. Reggie Jackson 76.9 AVG/49.3 PK/126.2 C-WAR

Reggie Jackson averaged 6.2 wins a year during his peak. Interesting to see how differently Baseball-Reference views Jackson’s career value, 68.4 WAR compared to both FanGraphs (81.4) and Baseball Prospectus (82.1). Jackson led the American League in home runs four times, finishing his career with 563. Jackson is the all-time leader in strikeouts with 2,597, striking out 22.7% of his plate appearances, the highest K% percentage of anyone enshrined in the Hall of Fame.

8. Harry Heilmann 72.7 AVG/49.1 PK/121.8 C-WAR

Harry Heilmann averaged 6.1 wins a year during his peak. He led the American League in batting average four times, including in 1923 when he hit . 403. Among right fielders with 5,000 plate appearances or more, Heilmann ranks in top five in batting average (.342), wOBA (.427), and on-base percentage (.410). Heilmann played his entire career in the segregated era.

9. Paul Waner 74.5 AVG/45.1 PK/119.6 C-WAR

Paul Waner averaged 5.6 wins a year during his eight year peak. Waner led the National League in batting average three times, and is a member of the 3,000 hit club. From 1926-1937 Waner’s WAR (Baseball-Reference) of 62.3 ranked 6th in all of baseball, trailing only fellow Hall of Famers Lou Gehrig (101.1), Babe Ruth (79.9), Jimmie Foxx (68.9), Charlie Gehringer (63.2), and Mel Ott (63.2). Waner played his entire career in the segregated era.

10. Sam Crawford 73.2 AVG/41 PK/114.2 C-WAR

Sam Crawford averaged 5.1 wins a year during his eight year peak, and is the all-time leader in triples finishing with 309. He is the only player in MLB history with over 300 triples, and 300 stolen bases. Crawford played his entire career in the segregated era.

11. Larry Walker 67.7 AVG/44.6 PK/112.3 C-WAR

Larry Walker averaged 5.6 wins a year during his peak. Walker finished with a slash line of .313/.400/.565 with an OPS of .965. He also hit 383 home runs. Those are the numbers of an obvious Hall of Famer, however with Walker it’s important to look at his home and away splits. Walker’s career numbers at home look like this .348/.431/.637 with an OPS of 1.068, and 215 home runs. Those aren’t just the numbers of an obvious Hall of Famer, they would make him one of the greatest hitters ever to play. Walker’s career road splits look like this .278/.370/.495 with an OPS of .865, and 168 home runs. Those are very good numbers, but very different from his home splits.

Let’s just look at his road numbers for a moment. Walker’s .865 road OPS is higher than the Hall of Fame average of .837, and a greater number posted by 102 members of the Hall. That group includes Eddie Murray (.836), Reggie Jackson (.846), Carl Yastrzemski (.841), Roberto Clemente (.834), and Dave Winfield (.827). That’s pretty good company. Walker’s career OPS+ (which factors home ballpark and era in its equation) is 141. The same number posted by future Hall of Famer Chipper Jones, and  a tick higher than his outfield contemporaries, Gary Sheffield, and Vlad Guerrero. The Hall of Fame average is 128, Walker’s 141 ranks higher than 111 members of the Hall, a group that still includes Eddie Murray (129), Reggie Jackson (139), Carl Yastrzemski (130), Roberto Clemente (130), and Dave Winfield (130).

Walker isn’t Lou Gehrig as his home numbers would suggest, but his road numbers are also Hall worthy. The exercise above while interesting to look at, is also a bit ridiculous, you can’t just use someone’s road numbers when evaluating their career. Walker’s career slash line is .313/.400/.565 with an OPS of .965. His numbers were without question boosted by playing nine and a half seasons at Coors Field, but that doesn’t mean he’s not a Hall of Famer. Are we going to omit every hitter who has ever played for the Rockies? What does that accomplish? It’s grossly unfair. Imagine if when MLB added a team in Colorado they told every hitter who played there that they would never have a chance of being enshrined in the Hall of Fame because of the air in Denver. No one would have played for them. Walker can’t help that he benefited from playing at Coors anymore then he can control the quality of pitchers he competed against. Beyond offense Walker was an excellent defensive player saving 86 runs over his career, he was also a solid base runner finishing with 230 stolen bases. Neither of those things have anything to do with the ballpark he was playing in. Walker’s numbers can’t be taken at a face value, but is omission from the Hall of Fame is a mistake.

Skipping around a bit:

Gary Sheffield averaged 5 wins a year during his eight year peak. He finished his career with a slash line of .292/.393/.514 with an OPS of .907, and 509 home runs. Sheffield was named in the Mitchell Report for allegedly purchasing steroids from BALCO. Sheffield has denied ever intentionally taking steroids. Because he was named in the Mitchell Report the BBWAA moral police will do everything they can to keep Sheffield out of the Hall of Fame. They will continue to ignore many of the best players of a generation, thus ignoring a generation of fans and risk turning the Hall into what both boxing and horse racing have become. Irrelevant. Sheffield is a deserving Hall of Famer, his future omission will be a mistake.

Sammy Sosa averaged 5.8 wins a year during his eight year peak. Sosa hit 60 home runs or more three times, and finished his career with 609. From 1998-2002 Sosa hit a ridiculous 292 home runs, however his career WAR (54.8), OPS+ (128), and OBP (.344) all fall significantly short of the Hall of Fame averages at Right Field (WAR 66.8/OPS+136/OBP .382). Sosa allegedly tested positive for steroids during the 2003 survey test, and was called in front of Congress due to suspicions of his PED use. He has become one of the figureheads of the “steroid era”. If he used (I think he did) he was just one of many players using steroids in the late 90′s and early 2000′s when use of performance enhancing drugs was encouraged and widely overlooked. The system failed, punishing players, and players alone retroactively is a gross misrepresentation of history. There is a reasonable case to keep Sosa out on numbers alone. If the voters looked beyond PEDs and traditional counting numbers they would see Sosa is borderline at best, and that his “assault on the record book” was not really a thing.

Rather than ignoring a generation of players, I think the Hall should simply acknowledge that they used and that it was a problem in the game during that time. Put something online, in interactive videos, and even on their plaques like “Mark McGwire played during a time when the use of illegal performance enhancing drugs was widespread and overlooked throughout the sport. During that time Major League Baseball was not testing and there were no punishments in place for using. McGwire has admitted to using steroids during his playing career.”

Back to players not associated with steroids.

Bobby Bonds averaged 5.5 wins a year during his peak. Bonds is one of only eight players to finish his career with 300 or more home runs (332), and 300 or more stolen bases (461). From 1968-1977 Bonds’ first ten seasons in the league he posted a WAR (Baseball-Reference) of 48.9 tied for 7th in all of baseball with Carl Yastrzemski. The reason why Bonds isn’t in the Hall of Fame already, he wasn’t Willie Mays. He didn’t live up to the impossible expectations placed on him when he joined the Giants and showed a brilliant combination of power and speed. Hopefully the Veterans Committee will put him in when they have the chance, he was a better player than at least nine right fielders enshrined in the Hall.

Dwight Evans averaged 4.6 wins a year during his eight year peak, a number slightly below the 5 win mark you want from most Hall of Famers. Evans was a late bloomer, at least offensively, that contributed to him being overshadowed for much of his career. First impressions are powerful, after Evans’ played his first three full seasons (72-75) his slash line looked like this .264/.338/.423 with an OPS of .761 and an OPS+ of 110, averaging 8 home runs a year. From 1976 on his slash line looked like this .273/.375/.478 with an OPS of .852 and an OPS+ of 130, averaging 22 home runs a year. Evans was a solid defensive player with hall-worthy career value, however his lack of a truly great peak makes him a borderline candidate. If nothing else he was a better player than at least seven right fielders enshrined in the Hall, that’s pretty good.

Bobby Abreu averaged 5.4 wins a year during his peak. Despite his rather impressive career slash line of .292/.396/.477 Abreu appears to have been chronically underrated. From 1998-2007 Abreu posted a Baseball-Reference WAR of 49.2, good for 8th in the majors during that stretch. Did you ever think of Abreu as a top ten player in the game? I’m not sure I did either. Abreu is the textbook example of someone that does lots of things well, but nothing exceptionally well, that’s one of the ways a player can end up undervalued during his career. Abreu is a borderline Hall of Famer, his carer OBP of .396 would rank 35th among those enshrined in the Hall, and he was a better player than at least nine right fielders residing in Cooperstown.

Vladimir Guerrero averaged 5.4 wins a year during his eight year peak. Guerrero finished his career with 449 home runs and an OPS of .931. The .931 OPS ranks 5th among right fielders with at least 5,000 plate appearances, as does his .553 slugging percentage. Guerrero never drew 100 walks in a season, nor did he ever strikeout 100 times. Guerrero is a deserving Hall of Famer, he will likely get in a few years after he first appears on the ballot.

Ichiro Suzuki averaged 5.6 wins a year during his peak. Ichiro led the American league in batting average twice, and hits seven times. Ichiro didn’t start playing for the Mariners until he was 27 years old, had he been playing in the majors starting at age 22 his career WAR would likely be approaching 80. Ichiro saved 134 runs over his career, 5th best among right fielders. He will likely get enshrined his first year on the ballot, rightfully so.

Right field might have produced the best player enshrined in the Hall of Fame, but it also produced the worst. Tommy McCarthy averaged just 2.2 wins a year during his peak. His career WAR (Baseball-Reference) of 14.1 is the by far the lowest number of any member enshrined in the Hall. McCarthy’s C-WAR of 33 falls 81.9 wins shy of the right field Hall of Fame average.

Right field has the most depth at any position. 24 right fielders are already enshrined, and you can easily make a case that Walker, Sosa, Abreu, Bonds, Evans, Guerrero, Sheffield, and Ichiro should join them. If that were to happen, the 25 best players to ever play the position would be enshrined, that would be kind of cool.

Since Baseball Prospectus does not publish WAR data for players before 1950, this does create a bit of unfair advantage for those players. This is because of the three sites, Baseball Prospectus tends to have the lowest WAR values for a player (especially with pitchers), so it puts modern players (1950-present) at an unfair disadvantage. So to adjust for this, below is the right fielders chart excluding Baseball Prospectus’ WAR altogether.

[gview file="http://www.replacementlevelpodcast.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/C-WAR-RF-3-no-bp.pdf" save="1"]

This list produced mostly modest changes.

Since I calculated peak using only rWAR, below is the chart using just Baseball Reference’s WAR. Another words this is a player’s career WAR plus his eight year peak using on Baseball-Reference. FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus are not factored in to the chart below at all.

[gview file="http://www.replacementlevelpodcast.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/C-WAR-RF-4-br-only.pdf" save="1"]

Again only modest changes from list-to-list here, however I still I find all three valuable to look at.

Because C-WAR focuses only on WAR, it makes it impossible for me to include Negro League players who have been elected to the Hall of Fame. Nothing distorted stats and the integrity of the game like the exclusion of black players for over fifty years. While I can’t include them in C-WAR, I do want to mention Pete Hill, and Willard Brown both were elected to the Hall of Fame as outfielders. Who knows how great they could have been, or how different the record book would look if they were all simply allowed to have played in the majors.

Many thanks to the incredibly smart people who work at Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs, and Baseball Prospectus. Without their tireless efforts to improve and maintain their sites and information none of this research would be possible.

Any questions or comments about the Hall, or a player listed or not listed above, send them to contact@replacementlevelpodcast.com or find me on Twitter @Rosscarey

Originally posted 8/10/12

Updated 11/24/12

Filed Under: Blog, C-WAR Hall of Fame Monitor, Hall of Fame Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

C-WAR Hall of Fame Project: Center Field

August 8, 2012 By 1 Comment
Willie Mays-1961-By New York World-Telegram and the Sun staff photographer, William C. Greene [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

[caption id="" align="alignright" width="315"] Willie Mays-Baseball Digest-1954
[Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons[/caption]C-WAR is a Hall of Fame monitoring system using career and peak WAR. C-WAR is the career WAR(P) totals from Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs, and Baseball Prospectus added up and averaged out, plus an eight year peak (five best years in a row, plus 3 best additional years) from Baseball-Reference. Click here for more information on C-WAR.

Hall of Fame standards vary by position, but a C-WAR score of 100 is usually the minimum of being Hall worthy. Ideally a player’s peak is 40+ (averaging 5 or more wins a year during their eight year peak) and his career average is 60+. The average C-WAR line for a Hall of Fame center fielder is: 73.8 career average/47.1 peak/121.0 C-WAR. Those are by far and away the highest standards at any position, only five center fielders enshrined in the Hall actually meet them. So many all-time great players played center field, Mays, Mantle, Cobb, and Speaker all greatly shift the averages up.  Obvious Hall of Famers like Duke Snider, Billy Hamilton, and Richie Ashburn fall short of those standards, that doesn’t mean they are not deserving, they are, as are several others. There are 20 center fielders currently enshrined in the Hall of Fame, three played exclusively in the Negro Leagues.

How to read the chart below:

The player’s name is followed by their career WAR from Baseball-Reference (BR), FanGraphs (FG), and Baseball Prospectus (BP). Those three numbers (or two, BP doesn’t publish historical WAR data prior to 1950) are averaged out (AVG). The AVG is the first half of C-WAR. Next you will find the player’s five best years in a row (BR-5), followed by the player’s three best additional seasons (BR-3), both according to Baseball- Reference’s WAR. Next to that is the total peak value (PK) of the five best years, and three best additional years added together. PK is the second half of C-WAR. Adding AVG+PK=C-WAR. The seasons next to PK are the five best years in a row (5 YEARS), followed by the three best additional years (3 YEARS +). The last number is C-WAR. Players highlighted in gold are members of the Hall of Fame. Players in blue are still active. You can zoom in and out of the chart with the magnifying glass symbols on the right, and download the entire PDF.

Please note that Baseball Prospectus’ WARP system is very unstable and produces frequent changes to a player’s value. The numbers below are up to date as of 11/24/12

Below is the chart for center fielders:

[gview file="http://www.replacementlevelpodcast.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/C-WAR-CF-2.pdf" save="1"]

Some notes on the chart:

1. Willie Mays 159.3 AVG/80.3 PK/239.6 C-WAR

Willie Mays averaged an incredible ten wins a year during his eight year peak, a peak that ranks 2nd all-time trailing only Babe Ruth’s. Mays finished with a slash line of .302/.384/.557 with an OPS of .941 and a OPS+ of 156, while also being one of the greatest defensive players the game has ever seen. Mays led the National League in home runs four times, stolen bases four times, on-base percentage twice, OPS five times, and OPS+ six times. Mays is one of just four players in history to finish his career with at least 3,000 hits and 500 home runs.  Using Baseball- Reference’s WAR Mays has six of the top 12 seasons a center fielder has ever had. From 1960-1969 Mays led the majors in WAR (Baseball- Reference) at 81.7.  Mays remains the greatest combination of power, speed, and defense the game has ever seen, many consider him to be the best ever to play, looking at his advanced and traditional numbers, it’s hard to argue that.

2. Ty Cobb 154.4 AVG/74.4 PK/228.8 C-WAR

Ty Cobb averaged 9.3 wins a year during his eight year peak. Cobb led the American League in batting average 11 times, on-base percentage 7 times, slugging percentage 8 times, OPS 10 times, and total bases 6 times. Cobb’s career average of .366 ranks first all-time, he also ranks top ten in wOBA, wRC+, and OBP. Cobb hit over .400 three different times (only two of those led the league), and his 4,189 hits ranks 2nd trailing only Pete Rose’s 4,256. From 1910-1919 Cobb led the majors in WAR (Baseball-Reference) worth 81.8 wins, eight more than the 2nd best player during that stretch, Tris Speaker. There is no disputing Cobb’s dominance, however he played his entire career in a segregated league when the game was still in it’s infancy. Taking all of his numbers at face value is a mistake.

3. Tris Speaker 135.2 AVG/66.9 PK/202.1 C-WAR

Not quite as good as his contemporary, Cobb, but still an all-time great Tris Speaker averaged 8.4 wins a year during his peak. In 1916 Speaker led the American League in batting average (.386), on-base percentage (.470), slugging percentage (.502) OPS (.972), and OPS+ at 186. Speaker finished his career with the most doubles ever hit (792), and is one of just 28 players to reach the 3,000 hit plateau. Among center fielders with at least 5,000 plate appearances Speaker ranks 2nd in batting average (.345), 4th in wOBA (.436), and third in wRC+ at 158. Speaker played his entire career in the segregated era.

4. Mickey Mantle 115.7 AVG/69.3 PK/185.0 C-WAR

Mickey Mantle averaged 8.7 wins a year during his eight year peak. From 1950-1959 Mantle’s WAR (Baseball-Reference) of 65.4 ranks 1st in all of baseball, ahead of fellow inner circle Hall of Famers, Stan Musial and Willie Mays. In 1957 Mantle posted a WAR of 11.1 (Baseball-Reference), that ties him with Ty Cobb as the best single season a center fielder has ever produced. Using Baseball-Reference’s WAR Mantle has three of the top ten seasons at center, including two of the top three. Mantle won the triple crown in 1956, and posted a WAR of 11.0 while doing so. Among center fielders with at least 5,000 plate appearances Mantle ranks 4th in on-base percentage (.421), 5th in wOBA (.431), and tied for 1st (with Cobb) in wRC+ at 171. His .977 OPS also ranks 1st, tied with Joe DiMaggio, but Mantle’s OPS+ of 172 stands alone.

5. Joe DiMaggio 83.6 AVG/54.2 PK/137.8 C-WAR

Joe DiMaggio averaged 6.8 wins a year during his peak. DiMaggio finished with a slash line of .325/.398/.579 with an OPS of .977 and an OPS+ of 155. Among center fielders with at least 5,000 plate appearances DiMaggio ranks 1st in slugging percentage (.579), 3rd in wOBA (.439), and 5th in wRC+ at 153. DiMaggio missed all of his age 28-30 seasons (43-45), due to his military service in World War Two. All of his numbers both traditional and advanced would be significantly higher had he never served

6. Ken Griffey Jr. 80.8 AVG/56.6 PK/137.4 C-WAR

Ken Griffey Jr. averaged 7.1 wins a year during his eight year peak. Griffey led the American League in home runs four times, and total bases twice. From 1990-1999 Griffey’s WAR of 65 (Baseball-Reference) ranks 2nd in all of baseball trailing only Barry Bonds’ 77.9. Griffey finished his career with 630 home runs, ranking 2nd among center fielders, and 6th all-time. Griffey was a complete player during his peak, however injuries robbed him of both his offensive dominance and defensive greatness later in his career. Griffey has no suspicions or whispers of steroid use against him, so he need not worry about the BBWAA moral police keeping him out of the Hall of Fame. Griffey will be inducted his first year on the ballot, rightfully so.

7. Duke Snider 67.4 AVG/52.4 PK/119.8 C-WAR

Snider averaged 6.6 wins a year during his peak, and led the National league in total bases three times. Snider’s slugging percentage of .540 ranks 5th among center fielders with at least 5,000 plate appearances, his .919 OPS ranks 8th. Snider suffers from the comparisons to Mays and Mantle, he wasn’t as good as either of his Hall of Fame contemporaries but that doesn’t mean his enshrinement in the Hall is undeserved.

8. Andruw Jones 63.4 AVG/49.4 PK/112.8 C-WAR (and counting)

Andruw Jones averaged 6.2 wins a year during his peak. Jones is one of five center fielders with 400 or more career home runs, but it’s Jones’ combination of defense and offense that makes him a deserving Hall of Famer. Using the defensive metrics at FanGraphs, Jones ranks as the best defensive center fielder of all-time saving 280 runs over his career, a number that trails only Brooks Robinson’s 294. Jones belongs in the company of other all-time great defensive players/Hall of Famers like Robinson, and Ozzie Smith. Jones is a better hitter than Smith, that much is for sure, and he ranks higher than Robinson in several key offensive categories as well, but again neither Smith or Robinson are in the Hall because of their offense. They were both elected to the Hall of Fame with over 90% of the vote their first year on the ballot because of their defensive excellence, somehow I doubt Jones will be given the same treatment. Perhaps it’s because Jones petered out by the time he hit 30, he fell off the cliff in a way most Hall of Famers don’t. When Jones hit 30, he got out of shape and no longer had the speed to cover ground in the outfield like he used to, or the bat speed necessary to be an elite power hitter anymore. However Jones broke in when he was 19, and started just about every game when he was 20. From 1997-2006 Jones’ first ten full seasons in the league, his WAR was 55.5 (Baseball-Reference) ranking third in all of baseball trailing only Barry Bonds and Ken Griffey Jr. Jones won’t get into the Hall of Fame, at least not by the BBWAA, his omission will be a mistake and serve as another example of the inconsistent admission standards.

9. Richie Ashburn 63.9 AVG/47.2 PK/111.1 C-WAR

Richie Ashburn averaged 5.9 wins a year during his eight year peak. Ashburn led the National League in batting average twice, and on-base percentage four times. From 1950-1959 Ashburn’s WAR of 48.3 (Baseball-Reference) ranked 6th in the majors, behind only fellow Hall of Famers Mickey Mantle, Stan Musial, Willie Mays, Duke Snider, and Eddie Mathews.

10. Jim Edmonds 63 AVG/45.4 PK/108.4 C-WAR

Jim Edmonds averaged 5.7 wins a year during his eight year peak. Edmonds was an excellent defensive player and power hitter. He finished his career with 393 home runs, 6th among center fielders. Among center fielders with at least 5,000 plate appearances Edmonds ranks 8th in slugging percentage (.527), and 10th in OPS at .903. Edmonds has no black ink on his Hall of Fame resume, that doesn’t help his case. I would vote him in, but his credentials are borderline.

11. Billy Hamilton 63.4 AVG/46.3 PK/109.7 C-WAR

Billy Hamilton averaged 5.8 wins a year during his peak. Hamilton led the National League in on-base percentage five times, and OPS twice. Among center fielders with at least 5,000 plate appearances Hamilton ranks 3rd in batting average (.344), 1st in on-base percentage (.455), 2nd in wOBA (.447) and 6th in wRC+ at 150. Hamilton played his entire career when the game was segregated and still developing, taking his numbers at face value is a mistake.

12. Kenny Lofton 62.3 AVG/45.8 PK/108.1 C-WAR

Kenny Lofton averaged 5.7 wins a year during his eight year peak. Using the defensive metrics at FanGraphs, Lofton ranks 7th among center fielders with 114 runs saved, he also ranks 6th in stolen bases with 622. That’s what Lofton was, an elite combination of defensive and speed. He also was a career .299 hitter with a .372 on-base percentage. Lofton played during a time when the home run was king and people weren’t noticing defensive and base running like they had in years past. The BBWAA has since discredit (unfairly) most of the home run hitters who played in the 90′s and early 2000′s. One would think with power being devalued, Hall of Fame voters would put more weight on defense and speed, and turn their attention to players like Lofton. 2013 will be Lofton’s first year on the Hall of Fame ballot, and unfortunately, likely his last.

13. Reggie Smith 66.6 AVG/40.5 PK/107.1 C-WAR

Reggie Smith averaged 5.1 wins a year during his eight year peak. Smith was undervalued for much of his playing career, but was a consistent performer for nearly fifteen years. From 1967-1980 Smith’s WAR of 58.6 (Baseball-Reference) ranked 7th in baseball. There are several reasons why players can get undervalued or overlooked during their careers. Overshadowed by a better teammate (Yastrzemski), late bloomers (not in this case), not excelling at any one thing (yup), played in a small market (nope), no clear primary position (mostly OF some 1B), several other great players playing your position league wide (not really). Whatever the reason, Smith was seemingly never given the credit he deserved when he played. He’s a borderline Hall of Famer, who was a better player than at least eight center fielders enshrined in the Hall, that’s pretty good.

14. Carlos Beltran 61.5 AVG/45.3 PK/106.8 C-WAR

Carlos Beltran averaged 5.7 wins a year during his eight year peak. Beltran is one of just eight players with 300 or more home runs and stolen bases. Beltran is an elite base runner, among integration era (1947-present) players with 300 steals or more, Beltran’s stolen base percentage of 87% ranks 1st. From 2000-2009 Beltran’s WAR (Baseball-Reference) of 48.8 ranked 6th in the majors, ahead of people like Chipper Jones, Derek Jeter, Vlad Guerrero, and Manny Ramirez. For some, Beltran is that guy who never lived up to his massive contract, that guy who didn’t swing at the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS, or that guy that was too often injured to ever be considered great, that’s a shame if that’s all they see, they are missing a Hall of Fame career.

15. Jimmy Wynn 60.7 AVG/45.3 PK/106.0 C-WAR

Jimmy Wynn averaged 5.7 wins a year during his peak, and twice led the National League in walks. Wynn like Smith was underrated when he played. From from 1965-1974 Wynn’s WAR (Baseball-Reference) of 47 ranked 5th in baseball behind only Carl Yastrzemski, Hank Aaron, Pete Rose, and Roberto Clemente. Wynn’s career batting average of .250 was likely the main reason why he fell off the Hall of Fame ballot his first year on it without receiving one vote. I wouldn’t put Wynn in the Hall but he is borderline and was a better player than at least seven center fielders enshrined.

Since Baseball Prospectus does not publish WAR data for players before 1950, this does create a bit of unfair advantage for those players. This is because of the three sites, Baseball Prospectus tends to have the lowest WAR values for a player (especially with pitchers), so it puts modern players (1950-present) at an unfair disadvantage. So to adjust for this, below is the center fielders chart excluding Baseball Prospectus’ WAR altogether.

[gview file="http://www.replacementlevelpodcast.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/C-WAR-CF-3-no-bp.pdf" save="1"]

Kenny Lofton experienced a significant bump up on this list. His C-WAR score went from 108.1 to 111.4, and he moved up three places.

Since I calculated peak using only rWAR, below is the chart using just Baseball Reference’s WAR. Another words this is a player’s career WAR plus his eight year peak using on Baseball-Reference. FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus are not factored in to the chart below at all.

[gview file="http://www.replacementlevelpodcast.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/C-WAR-CF-4-br-only.pdf" save="1"]

This list produced only modest changes from the previous one, I fine all three valuable to look at.

Because C-WAR focuses only on WAR, it makes it impossible for me to include Negro League players who have been elected to the Hall of Fame. Nothing compromised the numbers or integrity of the game like the exclusion of black players for over fifty years. While I can’t include them in C-WAR, I do want to mention Cristóbal Torriente, Turkey Stearnes, and Cool Papa Bell all were elected to the Hall of Fame as center fielders. Who knows how great they could have been, or how different the record book would look if they were all simply allowed to have played in the majors.

Many thanks to the incredibly smart people who work at Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs, and Baseball Prospectus. Without their tireless efforts to improve and maintain their sites and information none of this research would be possible.

Any questions or comments about the Hall, or a player listed or not listed above, send them to contact@replacementlevelpodcast.com or find me on Twitter @Rosscarey

Originally posted 8/8/12

Updated 11/24/12

Filed Under: Blog, C-WAR Hall of Fame Monitor, Hall of Fame Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

C-WAR Hall of Fame Project: Left Field

July 30, 2012 By 1 Comment
Ted Williams-Baseball Digest-1949 via Wikimedia Commons

 

[caption id="" align="alignleft" width="303"] Ted Williams
See page for author [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons[/caption]C-WAR is a Hall of Fame monitoring system using career and peak WAR. C-WAR is the career WAR(P) totals from Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs, and Baseball Prospectus added up and averaged out, plus an eight year peak (five best years in a row, plus 3 best additional years) from Baseball-Reference. Click here for more information on C-WAR.

Hall of Fame standards vary by position, but a C-WAR score of 100 is usually the minimum of being Hall worthy. Ideally a player’s peak is 40+ (averaging 5 or more wins a year during their peak) and his career average is 60+. The average C-WAR line for a Hall of Fame left fielder is: 69.7 career average/44.0 peak/113.7 C-WAR.

Stan Musial played more games at first than in left, but more games in the outfield than anywhere else. The Hall officially recognizes him as a first baseman, so I included him on that list as well. Remove Musial from the left fielders list, and the average Hall of Fame C-WAR line looks like this  65.9 career average/42.6 peak/108.6 C-WAR. Musial was good enough that he alone can shift all of the averages by a few wins, whether you think of him as an outfielder or a first baseman, he is clearly an all-time great player either way.

How to read the chart below:

The player’s name is followed by their career WAR from Baseball-Reference (BR), FanGraphs (FG), and Baseball Prospectus (BP). Those three numbers (or two, BP doesn’t publish historical WAR data prior to 1950) are averaged out (AVG). The AVG is the first half of C-WAR. Next you will find the player’s five best years in a row (BR-5), followed by the player’s three best additional seasons (BR-3), both according to Baseball- Reference’s WAR. Next to that is the total peak value (PK) of the five best years, and three best additional years added together. PK is the second half of C-WAR. Adding AVG+PK=C-WAR. The seasons next to PK are the five best years in a row (5 YEARS), followed by the three best additional years (3 YEARS +). The last number is C-WAR. Players highlighted in gold are members of the Hall of Fame. Players in blue are still active. You can zoom in and out of the chart with the magnifying glass symbols on the right, and download the entire PDF.

Please note that Baseball Prospectus’ WARP system is very unstable and produces frequent changes to a player’s value. The numbers below are up to date as of 11/24/12

Below is the chart for left fielders:

[gview file="http://www.replacementlevelpodcast.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/C-WAR-LF-2-no-irvin.pdf" save="1"]

Some notes on the chart:

1. Barry Bonds 164 AVG/78.6 PK/242.6 C-WAR

Oh Barry Bonds, what a mess you have made of things. Bonds has the second highest C-WAR score trailing only Babe Ruth’s 257. He is one of only ten batters with a C-WAR over 200, and his 78.6 peak is the 4th highest trailing only Ruth, Mays, and Hornsby. During his peak, Bonds broke the single season home run mark hitting 73 in 2001, averaging a homer every 6.52 at bats, another record. In 2002 he set the single season mark for on-base percentage at .581, then broke his own his own record in 2004 with an OBP of .609.  Also in 2001, Bonds broke Babe Ruth’s eighty year old mark for slugging percentage, slugging .863. There are more records, in 2002 Bonds set the single season OPS mark at 1.380, two years later, he bested himself at 1.421. Also in 2o01 Bonds set the record for most walks in a season with 177, he broke this in 2002 with 198, and again in 2004 walking 232 times, 120 of those walks were intentional nearly doubling his own record from 2002.  There are many, many, more records that Bonds broke and in some cases annihilated from 2000-2004. However, during that time Bonds later admitted to a federal grand jury that he used steroids, but claimed he thought he was using flaxseed oil, and a cream to help reduce pain caused by his arthritis. As a result of his testimony, Bonds was eventually charged with several counts of perjury and obstruction of justice. He was found guilty of one charge of obstruction of justice for giving evasive testimony, but was acquitted on the perjury charges related to his personal steroid use.  Bonds has never admitted publicly to intentionally using steroids, but has become the face of baseball’s “steroid era”. Whether Bonds used intentionally or not, he did use, and did see a boost in his performance, that’s rather obvious. For many, including several Hall of Famers, Bonds is a cheater, a jerk, and undeserving of being enshrined in the Hall of Fame.

What’s being lost here is how great Bonds was before he allegedly starting using in 1999. From 1990-1998 Bonds was the best player in baseball. His WAR (Baseball-Reference) over that time was 74.3, nearly fifteen wins greater than the 2nd best player, Ken Griffey Jr. Bonds’ OPS of 1.038 was best in baseball as was his OPS+ of 181. Bonds hit the 3rd most home runs during that stretch with 327,  trailing only Mark McGwire’s 340, and Griffey’s 334. Bonds also scored the most runs (1,000), had the most RBI (993), walks (1,073), and intentional walks (248). From 1990-1998 Bonds led the majors in wOBA .435, and wRC+ 173, and was also the best defensive player in the game (Using FanGraphs). Bonds was the best combination of power, speed, and defense that baseball had seen since Willie Mays. Bonds’ career numbers at the end of the 1998 season looked like this .290/.411/.556 with an OPS of .966 and an OPS+ of 164. He had 1,917 hits, 411 of them were home runs. He had stolen 445 bases and walked 1, 357 times. He had 1,364 runs, and 1,216 RBI. His WAR on Baseball-Reference was 96.9, a number that would rank him 20th all-time, ahead of players like Jimmie Foxx, Cal Ripken, Carl Yastrzemski, and Roberto Clemente. Bonds was 34 years old at the end of the 1998 season, to think he wouldn’t have accumulated significantly more or even had a few peak years left in him, is just blatantly wrong. Bonds was well on his way to becoming one of the best baseball players the sport has even seen, a “normal” career trajectory would have comfortably placed his career WAR in the top 10 all-time. 2000-2004 was the best five year stretch of Bonds’ career, his WAR was 50.0, averaging 10 wins a year over that time. What would Bonds’ eight year peak look like without that stretch included? Using Baseball-Reference’s WAR, Bonds’ five best years in a row would have been 89-93, when he was worth 43.5 wins. His three best additional years were, 96 (9.4), 97 (8.0), and 98 (7.9). That would give Bonds a peak WAR of 68.8, 3rd all-time among left fielders, slightly behind only Williams (71.5), and Musial at (69.6), and Musial played a few peak years at first base. Keep in mind, Williams and Musial both played  before the sport was fully integrated. This is a very long way of saying that Bonds’ inevitable exclusion from the Hall of Fame will be an egregious error. Yes he used steroids, and yes they boosted his performance, but he was just one of many players using steroids in the early 2000′s when use of performance enhancing drugs was often encouraged and widely overlooked. The system failed, punishing players, and players alone retroactively is a gross misrepresentation of history. Steroid use is part of Bonds’ legacy, but not all of his legacy. A Hall of Fame without Barry Bonds is simply not legitimate or credible. I hope the voters and Hall of Fame brass realize this before a generation of fans lose interest in the museum, turning it into what boxing and horse racing have both become.

The rest of the player profiles will be shorter, I promise.

2. Ted Williams 129.8 AVG/71.5 PK/201.3 C-WAR

Ted Williams averaged 8.9 wins a year during his eight year peak. Williams missed all of his age 24-26 seasons (43-45), and significant parts of his age 33 & 34  seasons (52-53) due to his military service in both World War Two, and Korea. All of Williams’ numbers both traditional and advanced would be significantly higher had he never served. Williams finished his career with a slash line of .344/.481/.633 ranking him 9th, 1st, 2nd all-time in each those categories. Williams is 2nd all-time in OPS (1.111), OPS+ (190), wOBA (.493), and wRC+ (188) trailing only Babe Ruth in each category. Many will say that Ted Williams is the best hitter, and best player they have ever seen, looking at the numbers it’s tough to argue with that.

3. Stan Musial 131.4 AVG/69.6 PK/201 C-WAR

Stan Musial averaged 8.7 wins a year during his peak. Musial missed his age 24 season (1945) due to his military service in World War Two. Musial led the National league in hitting seven times, on-base percentage six times, slugging percentage six times, and OPS seven times. He finished with a slash line of .331/.417/.559 splitting his time between the outfield and first base.

4. Rickey Henderson 115.4 AVG/60.2 PK/175.6 C-WAR

Rickey Henderson averaged 7.5 wins a year during his eight year peak. Henderson led the American League in stolen bases 12 times, and walks 4 times. He finished as the all-time leader in runs (2,295), and stolen bases (1,406), and is 2nd in career walks with (2,190). From 1980-1989 Henderson’s WAR (Baseball-Reference) was 69.6, best in baseball, topping the 2nd place finisher, Wade Boggs (59.1) by just over ten wins.

5. Carl Yastrzemski 98.3 AVG/58.0 PK/156.3 C-WAR

Carl Yastrzemski averaged 7.2 wins a year during his peak. In 1967 the year he won the triple crown, he posted a WAR (Baseball-Reference) of 12.0. That’s the highest single season WAR an integration era (1947-present) player has posted at any position. No member of the Hall of Fame played more games (3,308), or has more plate appearances (13,992) than Yastrzemski. He led the American League in batting three times, on-base percentage five times, slugging percentage three times, and OPS+ four times.

6. Ed Delahanty 69.1 AVG/52.4 PK/121.5 C-WAR

Ed Delahanty averaged 6.5 wins a year during his eight year peak. Delahanty hit .400 or higher three times, and led the majors in OPS+ four times. However, Delahanty played in a segregated league when the game was still developing, so taking his numbers at face value would be a mistake.

7. Al Simmons 71.4 AVG/47.5 PK/118.9 C-WAR

Al Simmons averaged 5.9 wins a year during his peak, and led the American League in batting average two consecutive years from 1930-1931. He played his entire career in the segregated era.

8. Joe Jackson 63.3 AVG/50.7 PK/114 C-WAR

“Shoeless” Joe Jackson averaged 6.3 wins a year during his eight year peak. He finished with a slash line of .356/.423/.517. Jackson was banned from the sport after the 1920 season for his involvement in the infamous 1919 “Black Sox” gambling scandal. Jackson  and seven other teammates were accused of conspiring to fix the World Series. The case eventually went to court, he and is teammates were found not guilty.

9. Tim Raines 69.1 AVG/44.6 PK/113.7 C-WAR

Tim Raines’ exclusion from the Hall of Fame is a mistake. During his peak, Raines averaged 5.5 wins a year matching the hall of fame standard. In 1986 he led the National League in batting average (.334) and on-base percentage (.413). Raines also led the N.L in stolen bases four times, and among post-integration era players with at least 400 steals, Raines’ stolen base percentage of 84.6% is the best all time. From 1982-1992 Raines posted a WAR (Baseball-Reference) of 52.9, 7th in the majors behind only Rickey Henderson, Cal Ripken, Wade Boggs, Ryne Sandberg, Ozzie Smith, and Alan Trammell. Raines had the misfortune of playing left field, hitting leadoff, and being known for his speed at the same time Rickey Henderson was playing and was doing all of those things better than him. Raines was not as good Henderson but that doesn’t mean he is not a deserving Hall of Famer. What happens when you average out Rickey Henderson and Lou Brock? You get a player whose numbers look a lot like those put up by Raines.

10. Manny Ramirez 69.8 AVG/42.3 PK/112.1 C-WAR

Manny Ramirez averaged 5.2 wins a year during his peak, and led the American League in OPS three times. Ramirez finished with a career slash line of .312/.411/.585 with an OPS of .996. Ramirez also hit 555 career home runs, however once MLB actually started testing for performance enhancing drugs, he failed two tests, receiving two suspensions. Ramirez also failed the survey test in 2003. So, Ramirez has three failed drug tests on his Hall of Fame resume. Manny has no chance of being enshrined, he will likely fall off the ballot his first year on it. He put himself in a position to allow people to fairly question whether he might have been using his entire career. Steroids gave Manny a boost, they made him better, they enhanced his numbers, to what degree we will never know. We do know he was a great hitter, played in a time when steroid use was common and widely overlooked, and most players (including those who used), never came close to putting up numbers like Manny did. I don’t think Hall of Fame voters should be punishing players, (the Hall disagrees). I would rather see Manny in, with a mention of his PED use on his plaque, the Hall’s website, and any literature they distribute about their members. Ramirez was foolish enough to use PEDs and get caught after testing finally went into place. Unlike Bonds, McGwire, Sosa, or A-Rod, Manny actually violated the rules and did so repeatedly. Several admitted “cheaters” are already enshrined in the Hall, however Manny’s omission will not be the egregious error that leaving Bonds or Clemens out will be.

Among batters with 5,000 plate appearances or more, Ramirez and Jackson are two of the twenty one members of the .300/.400/.500 club.

11. Goose Goslin 66.5 AVG/43.9 PK/110.4 C-WAR

Goose Goslin averaged 5.4 wins a year during his peak, and led the the American league in batting average in 1928 hitting .379. Goslin finished his career with a slash line of .316/.387/.500. From 1922-1931 Goslin’s WAR (Baseball-Reference) of 47.8 ranked 6th in all of baseball trailing only fellow Hall of Famers Babe Ruth, Rogers Hornsby, Lou Gehrig, Frankie Frisch, and Harry Heilmann.

12. Fred Clarke 72.9 AVG/37.2 PK/110.1 C-WAR

Fred Clarke was worth 37.2 wins during his eight year peak, a number below the 44.0 peak average for left fielders enshrined in the Hall. From 1895-1909 Clarke’s WAR (Baseball-Reference) of 59.0 was 5th in baseball trailing only Honus Wagner, Nap Lajoie, George Davis, and Bobby Wallace.

Skipping around a bit:

Zach Wheat averaged 4.4 wins a year during his eight year peak. I did a piece on your average Hall of Famer, Wheat perhaps comes closest to representing the average. His career wOBA of .384 , wRC+ 129, OPS+ 129, and FanGraphs WAR of 70,  all almost exactly represent your Hall of Fame average(s).

Minnie Minoso averaged 5.1 wins a year during his eight year peak, a number greater than twelve left fielders enshrined in the Hall. From 1950-1959 Minoso’s WAR of 45.2 (Baseball-Reference) ranked 8th in baseball trailing only Hall of Famers Mickey Mantle, Stan Musial, Willie Mays, Duke Snider, Eddie Mathews, Richie Ashburn, and Ted Williams. The five players after Minoso are also Hall of Famers, Yogi Berra, Jackie Robinson, Ernie Banks, Larry Doby, and Nellie Fox. Minoso falls short of C-WAR standards, however considering how many corner outfielders enshrined in the Hall that he is better than or equal to, one can easily make a case for his enshrinement.

Ralph Kiner averaged 5.4 wins a year during his peak. Kiner only played for ten seasons, during that time he led the National League in home runs his first six years in the league. He also led the N.L. in OPS and OPS+ three times finishing with a career OPS .946, and an OPS+ of 149. Among Hall of Famers who did not previously play in the Negro Leagues, Kiner’s ten year career is the tied with Ross Youngs as the shortest. He retired at age 32.

As for active players, it’s too early to tell but Ryan Braun is certainly off to a Hall of Fame start, and Matt Holiday has a long-shot chance of meeting standards as well.

As mentioned earlier the average C-WAR line for a Hall of Fame Left Fielder looks like this 69.2 career average/44.0 peak/113.2 C-WAR. If Barry Bonds were to get elected the standards would change significantly looking like this 73.7 career average/45.6 peak/119.4 C-WAR.

Since Baseball Prospectus does not publish WAR data for players before 1950, this does create a bit of unfair advantage for those players. This is because of the three sites, Baseball Prospectus tends to have the lowest WAR values for a player (especially with pitchers), so it puts modern players (1950-present) at an unfair disadvantage. So to adjust for this, below is the left fielders chart excluding Baseball Prospectus’ WAR altogether.

[gview file="http://www.replacementlevelpodcast.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/C-WAR-LF-3-no-bp-or-irvin.pdf" save="1"]

This list produced only a few modest changes although surprisingly Manny Ramirez took a bit of a tumble.

Since I calculated peak using only rWAR, below is the chart using just Baseball Reference’s WAR. Another words this is a player’s career WAR plus his eight year peak using on Baseball-Reference. FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus are not factored in to the chart below at all.

[gview file="http://www.replacementlevelpodcast.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/C-WAR-LF-4-br-only-no-irvin.pdf" save="1"]

Again, only modest changes from list-to-list here, but all three are valuable to look at.

Because C-WAR focuses only on WAR, it makes it impossible for me to include Negro League players who have been elected to the Hall of Fame. Nothing distorted stats and the integrity of the game like the exclusion of black players for over fifty years. While I can’t include them in C-WAR, I do want to mention Monte Irvin (who played eight seasons in the majors) Pete Hill, and Willard Brown, all three were elected to the Hall of Fame as outfielders for their time in the Negro Leagues. Who knows how great they could have been, or how different the record book would look if they were all simply allowed to have played their entire careers in the majors.

Many thanks to the incredibly smart people who work at Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs, and Baseball Prospectus. Without their tireless efforts to improve and maintain their sites and information none of this research would be possible.

Any questions or comments about the Hall, or a player listed or not listed above, send them to contact@replacementlevelpodcast.com or find me on Twitter @Rosscarey

Originally posted 7/30/12

Updated 11/24/12

Filed Under: Blog, C-WAR Hall of Fame Monitor, Hall of Fame Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,