Is Miguel Cabrera The Best Right-Handed Hitter Of His Generation?

Miguel_Cabrera

Not everything or everyone is the best thing ever. We live in a time of instant gratification, short attention spans, and hyperbole overload. Recently, I’ve heard and read various pundits and players proclaim that Miguel Cabrera is the best right-handed hitter of his generation or possibly even the best of all time.

I wanted to take a closer look to see if that might actually be true.

I compiled a list of right-handed hitters with a career OPS+ of 145 or greater with at least 3,000 plate appearances through their age 30 season. I used 1989 as the cutoff year and the list produced ten players, Cabrera being one of them.

[gview file="http://www.replacementlevelpodcast.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Best-right-handed-hitters-through-age-30-v22.xlsx"]

Of the players on the chart above only A-Rod started his career at a younger age than Cabrera, and since Miguel is still playing his age 30 season he should pass Pujols in games played and plate appearances later this year.

Cabrera has posted an impressive career slash line of .319/.395/.561, however he ranks 5th, 5th, and 9th among the other great hitters on this list. Pujols ranks 1st, 2nd, 1st, respectively. Cabrera’s OPS of .956 ranks 7th and his OPS+ of 151 ranks 6th.

Cabrera does rank 3rd in homers (325), even though that total will grow this season, he is unlikely to surpass what either Rodriguez (464) or Pujols (408) did through age 30.

Cabrera vs Braun. This is an interesting comparison as both players are active and still playing through their age 30 seasons. Braun is actually only in his age 29 season, so he has 2013 & 2014 to add to his totals.

Braun’s slash line: .313/.374/.569

Cabrera’s slash line .319/.395/.561

Cabrera gets the slight edge but their numbers are very similar. What really puts Cabrera over Braun is the large gap between them in at-bats (2,204). Cabrera also tops him in OPS+ 151-148, but their numbers are closer than I expected.

Cabrera vs Manny

Manny’s slash line through age 30- .316/.411/.599

Cabrera’s slash line .319/.395/.561

Again those numbers are close but Manny gets the edge in OBP , SLG, OPS, and OPS+ (156-151). Manny did test positive for PEDs twice, and also reportedly failed the survey test in 2003. Manny’s PED connections  allow for some skepticism as to how legitimate all of his numbers are, but looking at the numbers alone, Manny was better.

Cabrera vs Thomas

Thomas’ slash line through age 30-.321/.443/.584

Cabrera’s slash line .319/.395/.561

Thomas leads all of the hitters in the chart above in OBP (.443), and OPS+ (174),  he also tops Cabrera in AVG, SLG, and OPS. Through age 30, Thomas was a better hitter than Cabrera.

Cabrera vs Pujols

Pujols’ slash line through age 30- .331/.426/.624

Cabrera’s slash line .319/.395/.561

Pujols sweeps Cabrera across the board including a 21 point difference in OPS+ (172-151). It’s perhaps Pujols who is the best right-handed hitter of his generation.

Cabrera vs Bagwell

Bagwell’s slash line through age 30- .304/.411/.538

Cabrera’s slash line .319/.395/.561

Cabrera has a higher OPS than Bagwell (.956-.949) but Bagwell has the better OPS+ (159-151). At best it’s a toss up for Cabrera.

Cabrera vs A-Rod

Rodriguez’s slash line through age 30- .305/.386/.573

Cabrera’s slash line .319/.395/.561

Rodriguez leads all of the players in the group in games played, plate appearances, at-bats, and homers. He also was playing shortstop at a very high level and was an above average baserunner as well. Rodriguez was a much better overall player than Cabrera, but Cabrera is the better hitter besting him in AVG, OBP, and OPS+ (151-145).

Cabrera vs Piazza

Piazza’s career slash line through age 30- .328/.391/.575

Cabrera’s slash line .319/.395/.561

Piazza of course put up these numbers while playing catcher, which is absurd. This is another coin flip but considering Piazza has Cabrera beat in AVG, SLG, OPS, and OPS+, I’d give him the slight edge. However I expect Cabrera to significantly outproduce what Piazza did after the age of 30.

Cabrera vs Vlad

Guerrero’s career slash line through age 30- .324/.391/.587

Cabrera’s slash line .319/.395/.561

Guerrero actually tops Cabrera in OPS (.977-.956), however Cabrera has the slightly higher OPS+ (151-150). I think as a baseball community we have forgotten how good Vlad was during the first decade of his career, he may not have been quite as good a hitter as Cabrera but it’s a lot closer than I expected.

Cabrera vs Belle

Belle’s career slash line through age 30- .292/.364/.566

Cabrera’s slash line .319/.395/.561

This is the only clear run away for Cabrera. Cabrera not only outproduced Belle through the age of 30, he should annihilate Belle’s accomplishments after the age of 30.

So what does all this mean? Miguel Cabrera is not the best right-handed hitter of all time or of his generation but that doesn’t mean he isn’t great. He is. He is without a doubt on a Hall of Fame pace. He has the chance to surpass the career accomplishments of nearly everyone on this rather impressive list as he is still performing at his peak and likely has several great seasons ahead of him.

However, looking the best right-handed hitters of his generation (through the age of 30) it’s nearly impossible to legitimately rank him ahead of Pujols or Thomas. A handful of others put up comparable numbers as well. That doesn’t diminish Cabrera’s accomplishments, he is among the best hitters of his generation, few can make that claim.

Not everyone or everything is the best thing ever. Miguel Cabrera doesn’t have to be the best hitter ever to still be awesome and fun to watch. Let’s just appreciate him for what he is.

Braun and Cabrera’s numbers are up to date as of 4/30/13

Originally posted 5/1/13

Follow me on twitter @RossCarey

Update: 5/15/13

After re-reading this piece, I really didn’t accomplish what I wanted to. When I started writing it I was just trying to take a look at the best right handed hitters of the last thirty years through the age of 30. I ended up comparing everyone to Cabrera for no reason and as Bryan noted in the comments section, I definitely stretched the definition of his generation while doing so.  I think the numbers are interesting but the tone of the piece wasn’t quite what I had in mind. Sorry Miguel!

 

 

Episode 14: Richard Justice

Richard Justice

On this episode of the Replacement Level Podcast MLB.com national baseball writer Richard Justice joined me to discuss the passings of Earl Weaver and Stan Musial, and much more. Richard told several great stories about Weaver from his time covering the Orioles as a beat writer. He also spoke about Musial, not only about his greatness as a player, but how he helped Afican-American players fit in after MLB integrated.

Richard and I discussed the problems with the current Hall of Fame voting system and we each offered up some suggestions on how to improve it. Richard discussed his Hall of Fame ballot and his new voting philosophy. Of course we also discussed the candidacy of players associated with steroids and where he stands on that issue. We also hit on Jack Morris, Richard explained why he votes for Morris even though he admits “the facts aren’t on his side.”

Richard also praised several new-school baseball writers including Joe Sheehan and Rob Neyer, and he was critical of the BBWAA for not granting them membership.

Richard was rather candid and honest throughout the entire interview. It is conversations like this why I started hosting this podcast in the first place.

I hope you listen to and enjoy the interview. It can also be downloaded for free on iTunes.

[podcast]http://www.replacementlevelpodcast.com/podcast/RLP_EP14_RICHARDJUSTICE.mp3[/podcast]

Episode 13: Craig Calcaterra

Craig Calcaterra

On this episode of the Replacement Level Podcast NBC Sports blogger Craig Calcaterra joined me to discuss the Hall of Fame election results, and much more. Craig and I discussed the problems with the current Hall of Fame voting system and we each offered up some suggestions on how to improve it. We also spoke about the accuracy of defensive metrics, where advanced numbers are headed, and the sometimes obnoxious tone of dialogue that exists between traditional baseball writers and the sabermetric community.

Craig is a former lawyer, he detailed some of the problems with the Mitchell Report, and with the BALCO cases from a legal point of view.

I hope you listen to and enjoy the podcast. It can also be downloaded for free on iTunes.

[podcast]http://www.replacementlevelpodcast.com/podcast/RLP_EP13_CALCATERRA.mp3[/podcast]

 

 

 

 

Episode 12: Ken Rosenthal

Ken Rosenthal

On this episode of the Replacement Level Podcast FOX Sports columnist Ken Rosenthal and I discussed all things Hall of Fame. He discussed in great detail who he plans to vote for in 2013 and more importantly, why. Ken gave his thoughts on how the “steroid era” was covered when it was happening, and why he doesn’t plan to vote for players of that era the first year they appear on the ballot.

We also compared the ethical differences of steroid users in the 90′s to amphetamine users in the 60′s, questioned if the character clause should exist at all, and Ken explained why he thinks it’s wrong to keep a player out of the Hall of Fame on mere suspicion of steroid use alone.

I hope you listen to and enjoy the podcast. It can also be downloaded for free on iTunes.

[podcast]http://www.replacementlevelpodcast.com/podcast/RLP_EP12_KENROSENTHAL.mp3[/podcast]

 

If you enjoyed this interview, you might also like my conversations with other Hall of Fame voters Joe Posnanski, Michael Silverman, Ken Davidoff, and Bob Ryan.

Follow me on Twitter @RossCarey

Episode 11: Joe Posnanski

Joe Posnanski

On this episode of the Replacement Level Podcast Sports on Earth Columnist Joe Posnanski and I discussed all things Hall of Fame. He discussed in great detail who he plans to vote for in 2013 and more importantly, why. Joe gave his thoughts on what do with players associated with or suspected of PED use, and why he makes the distinction between those that used before and after formal testing officially went into place.

We also discussed the merits of the of “the sniff test”, offered improvements for the current voting process, and reviewed all of the key players on the 2013 ballot.

This is an in-depth look inside the voting process from one Hall of Fame voter.

I hope you listen to and enjoy the podcast. It can also be downloaded for free on iTunes.

[podcast]http://www.replacementlevelpodcast.com/podcast/RLP_EP11_JOEPOSNANSKI.mp3[/podcast]